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Put no stock in ballot box

Reading Time:3 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
Stephen Vines

This is a big year for elections: France and Greece have just held polls yielding dramatic results, the United States will have presidential and legislative elections, and there are general elections coming in Egypt, Iceland and Mexico. Even polls-challenged Hong Kong had a small election and is due for a bigger legislative vote later.

Linking these events are claims that elections produce instability, with incumbents saying that change threatens markets and economic development.

The hapless chief executive candidate, Henry Tang Ying-yen, proposed that the local economy was safer in his hands, as an experienced government member, than the untested Leung Chun-ying. Sadly for him, he appeared anything but a safe pair of hands.

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Nicolas Sarkozy also made this argument during his campaign in France and was ignored by most voters. The global markets became anxious by the election of left-wing Francois Hollande as president, as share prices dropped. Significantly, they did not in France.

There is a common perception that left-wing election victories are bad for markets. Unfortunately for those who make this point, the lines between left and right in politics have become seriously blurred.

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In Britain, the election of a Labour government in 1997 caused the predictable rumble over how bad it would be for the markets. But Tony Blair's administration turned out to be very business-friendly, arguably as much as any Conservative government.

The US stock market has historically performed better under Democratic presidents than Republican, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, even though Democrats are portrayed as a left-wing party heavy on taxes and regulations, while the right-wing Republicans present themselves as the pro-business party.

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