Best-case scenarios
A good wine, even a great wine, is not necessarily an investment-grade wine. What matters is not how much you like it; it is how much other influential people do.
The value of wines that can be expected - though not necessarily relied upon - to appreciate over the years is determined by market forces and connoisseur consensus.
But common factors usually include being red (Chateau d'Yquem is an exception); having the structure to mature for decades; and being expensive and in short supply. First growth Bordeaux and Domaine de la Romanee-Conti are classic examples.
Investment wines also need to be critically lauded, and if Robert Parker has rated a wine on his 100-point scale in the high 90s, that can considerably raise the price.
The Old World is generally a better bet than the New. New World cult wines that fetch sensational prices from testosterone-driven bidding at charity auctions are not necessarily good investments over the long term. One infamous example is the six-litre bottle of 1992 Screaming Eagle cabernet sauvignon that fetched US$500,000 at a charity auction in 2000. Even the fact that only 500 cases of the wine are made per year cannot account for that price.
The other important factor common to investment-grade wines is impeccable provenance.
Collectors look for well-documented previous cellaring of the wine in professional storage facilities.
The best possible provenance for a wine is to come straight from the cellars of the chateau, in a complete original case. Collectors will pay a premium for that.
