With a few months to go before the Communist Party holds its 18th congress in Beijing many uncertainties linger over the final line-up of the Politburo Standing Committee, the party's inner-most cabinet and the nation's most powerful decision-making body.
Even the exact dates of the congress, when almost 2,300 party delegates will gather in the Great Hall of the People to see a fifth generation of leaders take over from the fourth, have yet to be confirmed. For now, all we know is that it will be held some time in the autumn. The transfer of power, when it happens, will be the most important change in leadership in decades, but the transition may not go as smoothly as first thought.
The reshuffle will see many newcomers take up critical positions in interlocking party, state and military institutions. Around 200 out of 350 Central Committee members and alternate members are scheduled to retire this year, along with up to 17 of the 25 members of the Politburo, its governing body.
Membership of the new, all-important Politburo Standing Committee is assured for Vice-President Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, who will succeed President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao , respectively, and therefore retain their committee membership. It is widely believed that Xi will take over from Hu as party general secretary, state president (next year) and, eventually, chairman of the Central Military Commission.
This means that most of the interest in the meeting this autumn will be focused on those who will fill up to seven vacancies on the Politburo Standing Committee. Some analysts say the number of committee members is not set in stone and that one woman, State Councillor Liu Yandong, is a contender for membership. At least one party source also says that the number of committee members will be cut from nine to seven, reducing the number of vacancies to five, after Xi and Li retain their seats.
Cheng Li, director of research at the John L. Thornton China Centre at the Brookings Institution, said it was more important than ever for the outside world to understand the looming changes in the committee make-up and membership.