As you read the news, perhaps you ask yourself: 'Why aren't half of us dead from bird flu?'
After all, renowned flu hunter Robert Webster remarked in 2006 that 'society just can't accept the idea that 50 per cent of the population could die... I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role.'
Just last month, a feverish Guangdong boy visited Hong Kong for medical checks, and tested positive for bird flu, then on Friday came news that some bird flu strains may be just three mutations away from a pandemic virus.
For years, we've been haunted by the spectre of bird flu, which was first known to kill humans here in Hong Kong, in 1997. That spring, 4,500 chickens died on three Hong Kong farms, and scientists who investigated found a new strain of H5N1 avian influenza - which has since become known as 'bird flu'. Then, in May, a dying three-year old boy was found to be infected with the same flu, which would kill five more people in Hong Kong.
The city called in international experts. They included Robert Webster, whose research had revealed birds may carry flu viruses linked to those that threaten people. He led researchers who found bird flu in poultry markets and over a million chickens were slaughtered, supposedly halting the onset of a global flu pandemic.
But of course, this was not the end of bird flu. In May 2001, there was a further outbreak in Hong Kong, and the government ordered the slaughter of all birds in local poultry farms. The next year, bird flu returned, affecting poultry but also killing ducks, geese and egrets in Kowloon Park and Penfold Park. Swiftly, migratory birds were blamed for bringing the disease - even though most victims in both parks were captive waterfowl, and the few wild birds were egrets that likely lived there year-round.