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Air China

Mainland carriers' future up in the air

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The sky is not the limit for air traffic growth on the mainland despite phenomenal growth in passenger and plane numbers in the last decade.

Air passenger volume hit 300 million last year, more than tripling over the past decade - even with the 2003 Sars outbreak and the financial crisis five years later.

Mainland carriers nearly tripled the size of their combined fleets, from 602 aircraft in 2002 to 1,764 at the end of last year.

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By 2015, passenger volume is projected to reach 450 million while the commercial aircraft fleet is expected to number 2,750, according to the central government's 12th five-year plan. That would make China the biggest inbound tour market and fourth-largest outbound market in the world.

But turbulence may be ahead. Despite the growth spurt in the past decades and equally encouraging projections, energy issues may well be a spoiler, a researcher at the China Communications and Transportation Association warns.

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'If the number of aircraft reaches a certain level, let's say, 15,000, they will need some 150 million tonnes of jet fuel annually,' association executive vice-president Wang Derong says.

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