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Bank of China (BOC)

Rate cut reflects economic task ahead

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China's surprise move to cut interest rates twice in a month underscores the task the mainland has ahead of it: spurring growth - and employment - to keep social unrest at bay.

Many economists, though, say this month's action won't be enough, and the central bank will be forced to cut rates at least two more times this year, as well as further relax the so-called reserve requirement ratio, the amount of reserves that banks are required to keep on hand.

Both measures effectively free up credit in the financial system so banks can grant more loans.

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Data due to be issued next week is likely to show the economy grew slower than expected last month and in the second quarter of this year. In the first quarter, the economy expanded 8.1 per cent from a year earlier, but that was the weakest performance in three years.

The slowing is starting to take its toll. Just this week, the Sany Group, the mainland's biggest maker of construction machines by revenue, quietly began laying off hundreds of workers, sending a chill through Beijing, where leaders are already grappling with brewing general discontent and worrying that job losses will turn into street protests. This week, for instance, violence erupted in Shifang, Sichuan, not over jobs, but over environmental and health concerns about a proposed metal processing plant. After three days of protests, the city's party chief backed down and promised to scrap the plan.

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As for investors, they 'appear to no longer care about China's growth for this year - whether 7.5 per cent, 8 per cent, or 8.5 per cent - it doesn't matter any more', said Joy Yang, chief economist for Greater China at Mirae Asset Securities in Hong Kong.

She says what really concerns them at this point is a realisation that 'it's no longer a cyclical issue, but a structural issue' of transforming the mainland's export-reliant economy to one that is driven by domestic consumer spending.

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