Fans of outsiders laughing all the way to the bank

PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 11 July, 2012, 12:00am
UPDATED : Wednesday, 11 July, 2012, 12:00am


If you're one of the many with the sneaking suspicion this season's results have been very different from last season's, then you are bang on the money.

About now we have a look back at some of the season's stats, particularly with reference to betting and last year the statistics were all about what a tough year it was for punters.

It was all about a record-low average win dividend of $86.23 for your $10, a record-low average price of the favourite at $29.84 and how the 'roughies' had become rough in performance as well as price.

So depending on how you play, 2011-12 was a welcome change in the opposite direction, or a really tough year - because outsiders were back. Big time.

In the 2010-11 season of the 'price stompers' that were so accurate at times, outsiders struggled - 41 winners at 25-1 or better, only eight of them were 50-1 or higher and only two at triple-figure odds in 767 races.

This season isn't over yet and already we've have 57 heroes over 25-1, with 18 of those over 50-1 and five that have arrived at 100-1 or more.

The average price of all winners has ballooned out to $102.42 with two meetings to go, the highest average price for five years and one of the highest ever if it remains, but some will see the headline numbers in the performances of outright favourites.

Favourite backers had their $10 running for an average dividend of $33.01 this time around, but that benefit of around 10 per cent in price was accompanied by a drop off in the favourite's success rate, which was the second lowest in the past decade.

For 2010-11, favourites won 244 of the 767 races. After 750 races this term, we only reached the 200 milestone with Scarlet Camellia on Sunday. And last season, we had more than 62 per cent of favourites placed one, two or three - this time around, it has been under 54 per cent.

Flat win bets on the favourite are losing you a tick over 13 per cent of your outlay, a touch better than last year due to the better odds, and you're not too far away with the rebate.

But the 10 per cent clawback won't help if you're into odds-on favourites. There, you're losing more than 22 per cent on your money.


Number of horses that have won at 100-1 or more so far this season, with two meeting to go