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If you want the real outlook, read forecasts back to front

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Why you can trust SCMP
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The International Monetary Fund gets a terrible press. It's not always deserved.

Over the last few days the IMF has taken a hammering following the publication of a resignation letter sent to the fund's board by one senior official.

'After 20 years' service, I am ashamed to have any association with the fund at all,' wrote Peter Doyle, a division chief in the IMF's European department.

Doyle was disillusioned because the IMF had 'suppressed' discussion of mounting risks ahead of the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis.

'Timely sustained warnings were of the essence. So the failure of the fund to issue them is a failing of the first order, even if such warnings may not have been heeded,' he wrote.

His criticism isn't entirely fair. The IMF does issue warnings. You just have to know where to look for them.

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