Can Hurd jump the hurdles?
WHO would you rather see holding talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen over Hong Kong, Douglas Hurd or Michael Portillo? Perhaps you don't care, perhaps it doesn't seem to matter. 'Michael who?' you may ask.
Employment Secretary Michael Portillo has little chance of succeeding to be Foreign Secretary in the near future unless there is a marked change in British foreign policy, particularly towards Europe, but his name has been mentioned in connection with the brief over the past few days - sufficiently to make some of us twitchy.
He is vehemently opposed to further integration with Europe and the view of many is that he has all but bullied the Prime Minister into following his view.
Douglas Hurd has the reputation of following the Foreign Office brief which does not always go down well in Hong Kong, although historically it led at least to a smooth course in relations with China. But the Foreign Secretary, if we are to believe certain sections of opinion in Britain this week, is having a hard time over his views on relations with the European Union.
The question is, will he depart this summer, return to his country home in Oxfordshire and renew his passion for writing novels? Or will he stay on? The latter course would without doubt be better for Hong Kong. China has had enough surprises from Britain. Stability at the helm of the Foreign Office now must surely be better than the alternative of either a relatively unknown (in international circles) little Englander or even of Malcolm Rifkind, the current Defence Secretary and the other favourite for the succession.
The Tory rebels, those MPs who defied the whip over budgetary contributions to Europe last month, seem to be dominating the ground with their thinking over relations with the EU. Many perceive a swing in the Euro-sceptic direction from the Cabinet and even John Major himself. By some readings this came to a head a week ago when a Foreign Office position paper on the EU was rejected by the Cabinet. There were murmurings that Hurd would go, that he stood alone and isolated.
It was John Major who 18 months ago called those who challenged his then pro-Europe view 'bastards'. Now the dominant mood within Cabinet seems to be 'we are all bastards now'.
Rifkind caught the mood and shifted his own stance against Europe with a speech rejecting further moves towards federalism and calling for the establishment of some sort of Atlantic congress of American and European politicians. He was forgetting that the US is much more concerned about its own backyard and the Pacific Rim nowadays than in fighting off any threat from east of the Atlantic.
The common view had been that Douglas Hurd, the longest serving minister, would leave his position well ahead of the much heralded 1996 Inter-Governmental Conference on the future of the European Union.
But if he went now he would be leaving the field open to his political opponents. The Euro-rebels are calling him 'yesterday's man' while he has rebutted saying he was, you guessed it, today's man and would see in a great many tomorrows. THE Conservative Party is in a tizz over Europe, a state of near panic which events do not justify. The rebels get a say much bigger than they deserve while even loyalists are steamed up over an EU fishing row with Spain, which serious though it is should not be the defining issue on where we go from here.
Things were not helped by Jacques Santer, the new head of the European Commission making a number of federalist announcements which has got everyone twitchy again.
Yet Britain's hard-line Euro-sceptics call for some kind of neo-isolationism for which there is no general will at all.
If Douglas Hurd was a lesser figure he might feel the pinch and quit. But it was that other figure of significance to Hong Kong Lord Howe who described any prospect of his demise this week as a 'national tragedy of huge proportions'.
So let us hope that Douglas Hurd continues to fight his corner for Britain's sake as well as for Hong Kong's. May the 1995 flat-earthers go away and if Qian Qichen does get around to a visit maybe he will hold talks with someone with whom he shares a mutual respect.
