Hopes raised for new regional order
CANBERRA: Prospects for a 'new regional order' integrating Indochina into a great Mekong region including China and Southeast Asia have never been better, according to a new study.
But it warns that Cambodia's future is bleak and that the country could revert to military rule.
Coming as Vietnam begins its first year as a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, it says the integration of Indochina - Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia - into a wider 'security framework'is a key issue for the region.
It says Indochina itself may become a 'historical concept'.
The paper, Beyond Indochina , was written by Professor Carlyle Thayer, head of the Department of Politics at the Australian Defence Force Academy, and published in London by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Professor Thayer says the difficulties of including Vietnam in ASEAN's security community are illustrated by Vietnam's relationship with Thailand. He says Thai military officers still regard Vietnam as a security threat.
'Given Thai reservations [and Singapore's pro-China inclinations], a key question is what form Vietnam's integration will take,' the paper says.
'Will Vietnam's participation be limited to a formal level, or will Vietnamese defence officials be warmly received in defence discussions?' Professor Thayer says Vietnam has few options but to continue improving relations with China, although membership of ASEAN does not mean this will be any easier.
And he warns that Cambodia could revert to a dictatorship, military rule or a prolonged internal war.
'Factionalism may lead to splits within the major parties and the dissolution of the coalition Government. The death of King Norodom Sihanouk could spark instability and violence.'
