US data to clarify strong GDP figure

PUBLISHED : Sunday, 29 October, 1995, 12:00am
UPDATED : Sunday, 29 October, 1995, 12:00am

US data due out tomorrow, including personal income and consumption for September, is expected to show increases of 0.3 per cent.

New home sales for September, due on Tuesday, are expected to be virtually unchanged for the month.

Tuesday's data also includes the NAPM survey for October (forecast to drop slightly), the Chicago MPI for November, and consumer confidence for October (expected to be flat).

Friday's major release is October's unemployment figure, which is likely to edge up to 5.7 per cent. As a consequence non-farm payrolls are expected to be weaker.

The Federal Reserves' Beige book will be released on Thursday.

Things will be fairly quiet in Japan, the major focus being on September's balance of payments. Both the current account and trade account are expected to an unadjusted rise for the month.

In Australia, the current account for September will take the limelight as markets expect a figure below A$2 billion.

Retail trade for September, due out Thursday, is expected to fall by less than one per cent.

The currency outlook for the week starting today: HKD/USD Further consolidation is expected between 7.7300 and 7.7350 this week. Sell failures would target the base.

USD/JPY Price is expected to remain supported above 99.35 next week, with the first upside target at 102.00. A rally above would target the 103.00 area initially.

USD/DEM Daily moving averages are providing strong resistance at 1.4275. Initial consolidation is expected between 1.3810 and 1.4105 this week. A break of the band base would target strong support at 1.3725.

GBP/USD Broad choppy consolidation is expected this week between 1.5670 and 1.5890. A break above the band's top would target 1.5950.

AUD/USD Price is supported above 0.7450 this week and the initial target is at 0.7600. A break higher than that would target the 0.7665-00 area.