February deficit seen at US$10b
The first data release this week will be the US trade balance on Tuesday, with February's deficit seen at US$10 billion.
On Wednesday, March durable good orders are forecast to rise 1.5 per cent, and on Thursday, March existing home sales are seen at 4 million. The consumer sentiment index for April, due on Friday, is expected weaker at 92.0.
In Japan, household spending for February will be out on Monday and is forecast to show a 3 per cent increase. On Wednesday, the leading and coincident indicators for February are expected to stay flat, while Friday's data will be the main focus for the week with March national CPI. Prices are expected to post a marginal 0.1 per cent increase as they did in the previous month, while industrial production for the same month is expected to fall 6 per cent.
In Australia, the markets will be watching the March quarter CPI on Tuesday, with the treasury underlying rate forecast at 3.2 per cent on the year. Wages data on Wednesday for the February quarter is expected to show a moderate fall to about 4.8 per cent on the year.
HKD/USD: With moving average support at 7.7330, traders should target 7.7360 then 7,7370 on a break above.
NZD/USD: Moving average support on the daily charts at 0.6790 suggests strength. Target 0.6900.
USD/JPY: The important level for further strength is 105.00. Initial support is at 106.00.
USD/DEM: A short-term top has formed at 1.5140 and a test of 1.4955 is due. In the event of a break below, the target would be 1.4880.
USD/SGD: The upside this week should be capped at 1.4145 and traders should target the 1.4035 area.
GBP/USD: Upside cap is seen at 1.5260 with downside targets at 1.5115 and 1.5050.
AUD/USD: Key level is 0.7800, where a break lower would target 0.7725 or bounces would target 0.7890 then 0.7950.