Permanent status 'unlikely'
Moves to grant the mainland permanent Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status were unlikely to get through United States Congress this year, the assistant chief economist for the Trade Development Council said yesterday.
Mike Martin said a crowded legislative time-table, coupled with President Bill Clinton's stated trade policy priorities, made it unlikely the proposal would be passed.
The mainland is expected to have its annual MFN status renewed, despite the traditional opposition from conservative sections of Congress.
In his recent State of the Union address, President Clinton said his foreign policy priorities for Congressional approval this year would be the fast-track initiative and more funding for the International Monetary Fund.
The crowded legislative agenda this year is further complicated by Congressional elections.
Experts estimate Congress will have less than 100 days to address its formal workload.
Mr Martin said: 'The closer we get to elections the more unlikely it becomes for Congress to take on controversial issues. There is no incentive to pick up what might be a big squabble with election implications.' Granting of MFN status is crucial for the health of the Hong Kong economy.
The Government has estimated that the territory's re-exports from the mainland to the US could be cut from 32 to 45 per cent, a loss of between $73 billion and $103 billion worth of traffic, should the MFN debate be lost.
The total cost to the economy could be up to $34 billion and mean the loss of between 61,000 and 86,000 jobs.
