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Soros Fund sold on Southeast Asia but caution needed

The political shivers the name George Soros still send through parts of Asia were never more evident than during the recent no-confidence debate in the Thai parliament.

Former premier Chavalit Yongchaiyudh lost the debate, but not before he had managed to get in a fairly low blow over incumbent Chuan Leekpai's shoulder-rubbing with the billionaire financier in New York a few days previously.

'I cannot look at the bright side of the meeting between the Premier and Soros,' blasted Mr Chavalit. 'Your gesture showed you were very happy to meet him. If I were you, I would not even shake hands with him.' Clearly, the unproven allegations from Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad that Mr Soros' currency speculations were to blame for sparking the Southeast Asian market meltdowns still resonate.

While Mr Chavalit seemed content to perpetuate the Soros controversy, his rival in Bangkok was not going to participate in biting the hand that feeds.

In the New York meetings at issue, Mr Chuan had been heaped with praise by Mr Soros at a Council on Foreign Relations event, and was later treated to an elite business dinner hosted by the financier, where talk of the new-look Thailand and its investment prospects dominated the table talk.

Positive reaction to Mr Chuan's visit and the comments of Mr Soros were enough to send the baht to its highest level since the onset of the crisis.

Mr Soros has not been slow to mix some high-profile diplomacy with the mountains of money at his disposal. In January, he had dinner at the home of South Korean then president-elect Kim Dae-jung, and convinced of his willingness to reform the economy, went public with a bullish forecast for recovery, saying he would consider 'substantial' investment there.

No details have yet emerged of how Mr Soros' primary vehicle, Soros Fund Management, intends to do its shopping in the bargain-basement South Korean market. In two other recovering economies, Thailand and the Philippines, he has already made some key investments which have backed his bullish words with hard cash.

In Thailand, Mr Soros has taken a large stake in a consortium which injected US$650 million into a rescue of Nakornthai, an ailing steel mill. The deal, the biggest single investment in the country since the crisis, was hailed as a significant show of confidence.

Meanwhile, Soros Fund has also taken a 5 per cent stake in electronics company GSS Array Technology.

In the Philippines, Soros Fund recently entrusted $45 million to investment firm Next Century Partners, which has already bought significant minority stakes in a restaurant chain and an electronic components company, and is searching for other bargain buys in private companies which could be readied for flotation within two to three years.

Next Century chief executive Vincent Perez said the Soros Fund team was looking for companies which would show enough growth to enable an exit after about three years - especially in export-heavy sectors which were not endangered by further falls in the peso.

While Mr Soros' re-entry into the Asia market does not approach the $2 billion he has thrust into his pet economy, Russia, it is not escaping the notice of analysts searching for the first signs of the West's renewed confidence in Asian markets.

He is, of course, not out there on his own. Some prominent investors have started their own bargain-hunting trips, including GE Capital, which has taken over a Thai car-insurance firm, bought half of a Thai consumer-finance firm and launched a life insurance joint-venture company in Japan.

Other notable acquisitions have included Merrill Lynch's purchase of 30 branches of Japan's bankrupt Yamaichi Securities and Coca-Cola's decision to buy half of a prominent Thai drinks bottler.

According to David Hale of Zurich Kemper Investments in Chicago: 'This is an ideal time to go bargain-hunting. Prices are very low. You can buy everything in Asian right now at a 50 to 75 per cent discount.' A Soros Fund spokesman said it was not the company's policy to discuss its investments or the rationale behind them.

But not all analysts are bullish on Asia, nor certain that the entry of prominent players like Mr Soros heralds a renaissance.

Independent Strategy (London) chief economist Bob McKee said that while the 'big boys' like Mr Soros were entering the market, it was too early for smaller investors to get involved.

'Clearly, there's a group of people who feel that Asia's crisis has bottomed out, and that there's a lot of opportunities for good purchases at low prices,' he said.

'That's not our view. We are advising caution. It looks cheap, but we feel there is pain still to come.

'The people who are going in now are going to have to be prepared to take the pain for at least another 18 months.' W I Carr (Hong Kong) chief economist Michael Taylor said: 'People are looking for bargains, but if you look at countries like Thailand, it's extraordinary to me how little reform has actually been done.' Mr Taylor cited continuing property transaction curbs in Thailand and investment restrictions across the region as impediments to the kind of inward capital flow the troubled economies were searching for.

Japan appeared to be the best venue for big investors, he said, because of the freer, better regulated system.

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