GDP growth rates are like a standard transmission in a car. For practical purposes, you get them in three speeds forward and one in reverse. The three speeds forward are 0-5 per cent, 6-10 per cent and probable nonsense.
Don't try to put numbers on the reverse. My advice is to work on the basis that the first number to the left of the decimal in GDP growth rates is uncertain, let alone the first to the right.
The reason, particularly in so open an economy as Hong Kong's, is that most of the components of GDP cannot be based on hard numbers.
They exist in the merchandise trade figures, but for such things as changes in stocks the numbers come largely from surveys, and these are at times open to a huge margin of imprecision.
This has become moot again with the announcement that GDP contracted by an estimated 2 per cent in the first quarter. The breakdown of this number into the components of GDP has not yet been published, and the figure is almost certain to be revised over coming months.
But there is no denying that there has been a slowdown, and the published figures for the components up to December last year show some interesting trends.
For one, the slowdown in tourist arrivals has hit harder than many people realise. Visitor expenditure in Hong Kong accounted for the equivalent of only 5.5 per cent of GDP last year, down from 7.1 per cent in 1996.