Obstetricians have reported a noticeable interest among women wanting to give birth in this historic year, which is also a Year of the Dragon - a traditional symbol for the emperor that also stands for luck and good fortune. The combination of the millennium and the Golden Dragon, which only comes once every 60 years and dawns on February 5, makes a surge in the number of childbirths highly likely.

Not everyone sees optimism in this. Astrologer Choi Park-lai, for instance, dismisses over-optimistic expectations for babies born in the coming year: 'People are excited over the two historic occasions, but the coming Year of the Golden Dragon is no different from any other Year of the Dragon.

'There will always be people with good fortune and people with bad fortune.' Such pessimism will probably not change the minds of those planning a millennium, or dragon, baby. And the earlier the better.

Some parents-to-be with babies due in January are preparing to welcome the era by giving birth as soon as possible.

Four of obstetrician Dr Jennie Ng Ching-wah's patients have booked for Caesarean sections in early January, ranging from days to two weeks before their baby's due date.

One young Chinese couple whose child is due on January 5 has requested delivery on the second, closer to the New Year.

Requests for delivery on auspicious dates or for social reasons are not uncommon among Chinese patients.

Often private obstetricians agree and perform Caesarean sections that cost a few thousand dollars more than normal delivery, or use inducement drugs such as syntocinon or prostaglandin.

Hong Kong has a high rate of Caesarean births in the private sector. Many women are given a choice, in contrast to other countries such as Britain where the option is not available unless a natural delivery is a threat to the woman or baby.

There have also been claims that such operations are carried out to fit in with doctors' own schedules. Planned births after the Lunar New Year arrives will come as no surprise.

'I try to comply with the patient's request for a Caesarean if she so wishes. Some people do believe that the timing of birth affects a baby's future,' Dr Ng said. 'We only proceed with the operation after assessing the mother's condition and [we only induce delivery] if her cervix is in a favourable condition.' Chances are high, still, that the first child of the new century will arrive through a normal delivery. If you are looking for a Caesarean or an induction in the early hours of January 1, you will probably look in vain.

Government hospitals and some private hospitals are not performing non-emergency operations on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day out of concerns over disruptions to computers and life-saving equipment due to the Y2K bug.

With a much larger clientele, government hospitals do not normally accept patients' requests for Caesarean sections or inductions at a specific time anyway.

The chances of the natural birth of a millennium baby are high at Tuen Mun hospital, where three babies are due in the morning of January 1.

Staff there are prepared to report to the Government Information Service once a baby is born on the stroke of midnight, in line with the common practice of government hospitals in case of a timely birth on New Year's Eve.

Of the private hospitals, the Sanatorium is not offering a surgical procedure at the dawn of the millennium.

The Baptist Hospital has so far not received any bookings for Caesarean sections on New Year's Eve or New Year Day.

Elective Caesarean sections are out of the question at the Matilda Hospital, which plans to deploy extra staff on December 31 and January 1 to cope with any Y2K glitches.

A spokesman maintained the hospital's systems are fully Y2K compliant, but the hospital is avoiding any risk by not carrying out operations on New Year's Day.

Even without the Y2K threat, the hospital says it does not usually offer Caesarean sections for would-be mothers except for medical reasons.

At St Teresa's Hospital, which saw a plunge in the number of deliveries from 4,471 in 1997 to 3,757 last year, only emergency operations will be carried out on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Fewer staff will be on duty. Resident obstetrician Dr Wong Shu-pong, who has agreed to requests for Caesareans at an auspicious time before, does not recommend carrying out elective operations late at night. 'It's always more dangerous to do it late at night as naturally the conditions of the patient, the doctor and the supporting medical staff are less favourable then.

'It's like one would not choose to play chess late at night.' Fetuses have to be at least 37 weeks old to be considered right for delivery. But Dr Wong is not in favour of that. 'People tend to have a misconception that whatever judgment made by a doctor is right.

'But no one can be absolutely sure how old or mature a baby is, and there are always risks with any operation.' Inevitably a number of hopefuls are drawn to the idea of making history. And an element of commercialism associated with the millennium could add to the incentive.

Food giant Heinz, for example, is offering a free supply of food for the first three years of the winning baby. A spokesman says they will contact all hospitals to find the first child born in the new year. Meanwhile, Procter and Gamble (HK), the maker of Pampers nappies, has promised unlimited supplies of nappies for the 'first-born' baby.

Its joint campaign with the Watson's stores inviting customers to submit guesses on the gender of the first child to be born in January has triggered a favourable response, according to its business manager Hanno Leung king-shing. 'We have not collected the answers from all Watson's stores yet, but the campaign has already been going on for months.' There is a lucky draw in January and participants are being asked to nominate parents who they think will give birth to the millennium child.

There is no doubting the public interest. Mr Leung is confident of wide press coverage for the child. He does not think the commercial sector is responsible for creating the hype.

Instead, he said it is the public rather than sponsors who have generated interest in the millennium baby. 'The mothers are taking a risk too by giving birth under the threat of Y2K.' Words of caution are offered to women thinking of using artificial means to bring about delivery on or around January 1. Obstetrician Dr Lucy Lord warned: 'One has to be very careful about doing induction at an early stage. Even with [full] term babies, some do have problems with their lungs; it is difficult to say if the problems are caused by early intervention, but if that happens, people may assume they are caused by early intervention.' Dr Lord is adamant about letting nature take its course. Artificial delivery two, three weeks before due date carries increased risks, she says.

Midwife Sarah Pickup is familiar with stories about people having inductions for auspicious dates, which she picked up from women attending her antenatal class.

She is also not inclined towards the idea of artificial intervention: 'Ideally you should allow the baby to be delivered when it wants to. I would want my baby to stay there till the time when it's supposed to be out. Labour can be very long and painful for women with induction and it can also lead to a Caesarean in the end.' After a downturn in their business, next year could well be a good one for obstetricians in general, with plenty of births in store.

'Even the number of clients at specialist clinics treating infertility has dropped in the last two years,' said Dr Dominic Lee Fuk-him, president of the Obstetrical and Gynaecological Society of Hong Kong. 'But now that the economy seems to be picking up again, people are likely to be less strict about family planning.' Among his patients whose babies are due in the next six weeks, some want to see their babies born after the Lunar New Year. And that is certainly something that can only be left to nature.