Thaksin's challenge
When Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra first came to political prominence in 1995, he undertook to solve Bangkok's notorious traffic problems in six months. He offered traffic police bonuses for keeping traffic moving in their sections, and provided 2,000 wheel clamps to immobilise illegally parked cars. The chaos continued.
Now he is in the driving seat after a landslide victory, economists worry that history may repeat itself as he adopts the same formula in dealing with the economy. During the election campaign he promised to provide each of Thailand's 70,000 villages with US$23,000 (HK$180,000) in development funds and impose a three-year moratorium on debts that farmers owe to the Bank of Agriculture and Co-operatives. But it is not clear where the money will come from to fund these generous policies.
The corporate and banking sectors are buoyed up by his pledge to nationalise bad debts. But there is no guarantee the banks will play it his way. And foreign investment is likely to be deterred by his populist policies, particularly when Mr Thaksin talks of privatising state enterprises by methods detrimental to outsiders. Under the circumstances, it is hardly surprising he has yet to find a finance minister.
With a case pending in the Constitutional Court that he concealed his wealth by transferring several million dollars worth of company shares to his servants, supposedly to act as proxy holders, Mr Thaksin's reputation is already stained. It may be months before the case comes to court, but a guilty verdict will bring a halt to his career. Although two or three of the most corruption-tainted politicians have been excluded from his cabinet, there is concern that many big businessmen in his party will join the Government, and put their own interests first.
Expectations are high. Mr Thaksin will have perhaps six months to show results. If he fails, farmers have threatened to take to the streets, and Thailand will be plunged into instability and chaos once more.
