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Cambodia a mirror for Karzai

If Afghanistan's interim Prime Minister, Hamid Karzai, wants to see the state of his fledgling nation a decade from now, perhaps he could simply turn his gaze eastwards to Cambodia. There, in one of Southeast Asia's poorest countries, is the result of an uncannily similar series of historical events.

With Cambodian politicians beginning official campaigning tomorrow for local government elections on February 3, perhaps Mr Karzai should closely monitor what happens to avoid potential pitfalls.

Those problems, human rights groups and election monitors say, are many. Most concern is being expressed about election violence, which since the start of last year has resulted in the deaths of 15 candidates, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. A total of 22 people died during the entire election process during the last polls in 1998.

Questions are also being raised by observers and diplomats over the state of Cambodia's democracy. Some say it could be much better developed, but others object that a decade is not enough time to develop a free and fair Western-style system.

Cambodia, like Afghanistan, was a kingdom during its 'golden age' of peace and stability during the 1960s. But foreign interference led to the downfall of King Norodom Sihanouk, just as it did in Afghanistan with King Mohammed Zahir Shah.

The similarities diverge with the rapid rise to power of the China-backed Khmer Rouge and the Pakistan-supported Taleban - events occurring two decades apart - although both regimes were murderous and destructive in their respective ways.

The similar timeline returns after 1979 with the downfall of Pol Pot. Vietnam invaded Cambodia and Russian troops stormed into Afghanistan, heralding a decade of foreign domination in both countries. But in 1989, the invaders withdrew and an era of civil war ensued. The United Nations intervened with success in Cambodia, with democratic elections held in 1993. In Afghanistan, promised elections never eventuated and civil war raged on, with the eventual rise of the Taleban.

To understand Afghanistan is - to a degree - to understand Cambodia. Outside provincial cities, a feudal system of village chiefs and officials is still the basis for governance. There is debate on what level of influence the Government in Phnom Penh has on the lives of provincial Cambodians.

Aid workers say many people still live in extreme poverty despite the injection of billions of dollars of foreign aid. Corruption is rife at all levels of government and there is no doubt aid agencies and foreign donors are treating Cambodia far more cautiously when it comes to handouts than they did in the optimistic days of the early 1990s.

Expatriates often say handing over money is the best way to settle a dispute and this is an accepted form of rule in a feudal society. As in Afghanistan, where warlords enrich themselves through such a process, so do many village chiefs in Cambodia.

An Asian diplomat in Phnom Penh said that although the political process was far from what had been envisaged by the UN, it was still developing and there was hope yet of its blossoming.

'The legislative process is coming along, although much power is still in the executive branch,' he said. 'It will take time. There are some very vocal people around who don't seem to be afraid to speak out, but they are not a viable opposition. They keep a verbal check on the Government, but we're a long way from the kind of system where they can be a true alternative.'

Most vocal of the objectors is Sam Rainsy, of the political party bearing his name. He has long accused Prime Minister Hun Sen and members of the ruling Cambodian People's Party of intimidation and using murder as a campaign weapon.

The UN says eight of the candidates killed so far were from the Sam Rainsy Party and seven from the royalist Funcinpec party, both of which are expected to make strong gains in the elections. None were recorded from the Cambodian People's Party or the five smaller opposition groups contesting the elections.

Nonetheless, Mark Stevens, deputy chief observer of the European Union's Observation Mission, believes the poll is an important step in democratisation. He told Agence France-Presse it would mark a radical change, with Cambodia moving from appointed officials to democratically elected ones.

'What we are looking at is 1,621 individual elections taking place at the same time,' he said. 'There are myriad situations and local dynamics that will impact individually at the local level.'

The political process is also seen in a hopeful light by Kao Kim Hourn, the executive director of the Cambodian Institute for Co-operation and Peace. Like the UN-supervised elections of 1993 and those organised by Cambodians five years later, he sees the polls next month as a significant political step.

'The organisation of these communal council elections is a move towards building a democracy and finding decentralisation,' Dr Kao said. 'This is an important step that this country is undertaking.'

There were positive indicators that democracy had taken root and was continuing to develop - among them an opposition, a vibrant society and a press that was among the freest in the region.

'Unlike the line from Sam Rainsy that the process has been a total failure, I believe there has been positive progress,' Dr Kao said. 'Of course, Cambodia will need to continue to strengthen the process of democracy and the legal system, but that does not mean that we can't grow.'

Dr Kao said the main reason for the slowness of a democratic process taking root was the fact that peace and stability did not really have a chance until the total collapse of the Khmer Rouge in 1998. A low-level civil conflict until then had stunted the Government's ability to fully function. The change in the ensuing three years had been dramatic for a country which suffered 1.7 million deaths at the hands of the guerilla group and two decades of resultant hardship through Vietnamese occupation and civil war.

'People are happier now even though some things haven't greatly improved, such as the standard of living and the number of people living in poverty,' he said. 'But compared to the region, Cambodia is not that much worse off than other countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, which still have millions of people living below the poverty line.'

The process of rebuilding would still take time, though, given the degree of destruction Cambodia had suffered and the rebuilding - virtually from nothing - of a country which now has 11.4 million people.

Election monitors are also hopeful that the poll will be the start of a turning point. They say it will let people decide who they want to represent them and from there, the Government can begin in earnest to work towards helping alleviate the problems faced by those in rural elections.

Peter Kammerer is the Post's Foreign Editor

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