Analyst tips US troop cuts as threat from North lessens
The American military presence in South Korea will be reduced in coming years as the threat posed by North Korea diminishes, a leading analyst has predicted.
Kim Chang-su's comments came as the United States and South Korean governments announced yesterday the further consolidation of American military facilities in the South.
There are 37,000 US military personnel scattered among 41 bases and smaller facilities. Of these, 22,000 are soldiers and 8,000 are with the US Air Force. Although the plans, to be finalised in May, call for the closure of more than a dozen facilities by 2012 so that land can be handed back to the South Korean people, there are indications of a scaling back of the number of troops.
Dr Kim, the director of US military studies at the independent Korea Institute of Defence Analysis, said there was little doubt that US military cuts and the lessening North Korean threat would mean the reduction of the American military force.
'By 2010, North Korean threats will have declined a lot and improved technology will mean the US will definitely reduce its military presence,' he said.
The North's military is believed to number one million, but Dr Kim said it was no longer a match for the 700,000-strong South Korean army combined with the superior weaponry of the US forces. It was also assumed that relations between the two Koreas would dramatically improve by the end of the decade.
The US has denied it intends to cut back troop numbers in South Korea.
The US consolidation plan is in response to protests for public land resumptions and cost-cutting. The accord signed in Seoul yesterday reduces the land used by US facilities from 244 square km to 105 square km. The number of US camps will be reduced from 41 to 23 by the end of 2011.
Although 10 per cent of the 10,000 American soldiers stationed in Seoul will be relocated, the main base in the city, Yongsan, will be little affected. It sits on valuable land in the heart of the city and is the scene of frequent anti-American protests.
Dr Kim said the American forces cost about US$4 billion (HK$31.2 billion) a year to maintain and Seoul paid 10 per cent. The consolidation plan would cost up to US$2.3 billion, which would be borne by Seoul and Washington.
At present, though, the US forces are highly welcome militarily.
Seoul, with 12 million people and a quarter of the South's population, is just 25km from the Demilitarised Zone, which separates the Koreas. North Korea has hundreds of thousands of soldiers positioned along its side of the border. In the back of Korean and American minds was also the threat of China.
'Nobody can deny that the US has a dual purpose of also keeping watch on China, but the prime reason for it basing troops in South Korea is a deterrence against North Korea,' Dr Kim said.
'The North Korean military threat is far worse than the Chinese potential military threat. China currently does not pose any direct threat to South Korea.'
Dr Kim said that more liberal elements of South Korean society saw the US military presence as harmful. Economic difficulties and anti-American sentiment compounded their argument.
