New leaders will align with US foreign policy
The new leaders of the Chinese Communist Party emerging from the 16th party congress are likely to pursue a pragmatic, moderate foreign policy, but any threat to the status of Taiwan would force them to change course, according to Chinese experts on international relations.
The pragmatism is based on the recognition that China has nothing to gain by obstructing the United States in world affairs.
On the eve of the 16th congress, which starts on Friday, its top priority is to tackle the pressing domestic issues of social tension and continued economic growth, and a stable international environment will help it achieve its objectives.
In other words China, with minor reservations, has bought US President George W. Bush's call in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks: 'You are either with us or against us.'
The experts say that Chinese civilian and military leaders have reached a consensus to take the same line as the US on global affairs, as long as the Taiwan issue takes a back seat.
The approach has been made possible only after the US came to recognise that enlisting China's co-operation in combatting global terrorism and defusing tension in other hotspots was beneficial, said Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University.
Initially Washington maintained that China could have been more supportive in the anti-terrorist campaign, but it gradually came to realise the value of China's co-operation in sharing intelligence on Afghanistan and its judiciousness in exercising its veto in the United Nations Security Council.
Visible signs of warming Sino-American relations began with the visit in late August by US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and culminated in the warm reception that President Jiang Zemin received at President Bush's Crawford ranch last month.
The Armitage visit resulted in the US declaring an East Turkestan Muslim group a terrorist organisation and China tightening the export control of missile technology.
In the Crawford sojourn, the two leaders agreed to resume bilateral military talks at vice-ministerial level, which had been interrupted since April last year after the mid-air collision of a US reconnaissance plane and a Chinese fighter jet.
Mr Yan said China's foreign policy still followed the guidelines laid down by Deng Xiaoping at the 12th Communist Party Congress in 1982. 'The policy is dictated by the need for China's development. It is not going to change for another decade,' he said.
Xia Yishan, senior researcher at the Institute of International studies, a think-tank for China's Foreign Ministry, also emphasised continuity in China's foreign policy.
The new leaders will be younger and have had little foreign contacts in their earlier careers, but they will be guided by the steady hands of the elder statesmen, just like Jiang Zemin was tutored by Deng Xiaoping.
The pragmatic approach has served China well in the years following the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, said Mr Xia.
For a collective leadership, consensus over clear policy objectives is all the more important to avoid indecision or even paralysis at the top. The new understanding with the US should help them to chart a course more effectively, he said.
Regular military talks on strategic security, multilateral arms control and non-proliferation will help reduce the risk of escalating tension in future crises, he said, suggesting that the two countries should establish a hotline for instant consultations.
Aligning China's interests with those of the US is necessary because China wants to 'merge track' with the global system, which in essence means following the lead of the Americans.
With the US exerting a dominant influence in major international organisations such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank or the World Trade Organisation, China cannot ignore them and go it alone, said Ye Zicheng, a professor of international relations at the Peking University.
Once the policy towards the US is clarified, relations with other countries from north and south Asia to Russia and the European Union basically fall into place, the experts said.
But the warming relations cannot mask China's deep-seated distrust of the US over the Taiwan issue, which will pose the most severe test to the new leaders.
The US has kept a studied ambiguity on Taiwan. Although verbally it supports 'one China', it has tacitly encouraged Taiwan to embark on the course of seeking independence from China, Mr Yan said.
In the short term, Washington, pre-occupied with impending military action against Iraq, relations with other Islamic nations, the Middle East and North Korea, is likely to keep Taiwan on the back burner, but this may change in a couple of years, he said.
Mr Yan predicted that the crucial test was likely to happen in 2007, the year before Taiwan president Chen Shui-bian's second term expires. If Mr Chen seeks to stay on, he will launch a referendum and may make Taiwan an independent state. Mr Chen said this summer that Taiwan's people should decide the island's future in a referendum.
While China could be flexible on a host of international issues or even occasionally overlook and play down Taiwan's drive for statehood, the bottom line is clear.
'No Chinese leader will tolerate Taiwan independence,' Mr Xia said. 'It is not negotiable.'
