China's engagement gives cause for hope
Over the last few weeks, the world has been gripped by the large-scale drama of the United States struggling to build its case for the impending war against Iraq, while keeping North Korea from exploding into a second, unwanted battle front. Hardly a day passes without a new tactical development, as the US plays the classic game of great powers at times of stress, calling on its friends and attempting to bend the multilateral system to its will.
If the US were a rogue state, as some now argue, it would have struck Baghdad long since. Instead, it has worked within the letter, if not the spirit, of institutions of global governance, pursuing a Bismarckian balancing act of alliances and diplomatic foreplay.
Against such a backdrop, it is hard to notice much else. But from a Chinese and Asian perspective, one of the extraordinary new developments of Gulf War, Round Two, has been China's emergence as a force for multilateralism.
The Iraq crisis has been one more act in China's diplomatic emergence, echoed as well in its performance in the World Trade Organisation and regional bodies. Yesterday we saw another example of Chinese tactical mastery in Beijing, with meetings between Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan. The two ministers increased the pressure on the US by signalling a joint anti-war position.
China is using its influence not only in the UN Security Council, but through its broader relationships to shape a global political process. Its tactics are standard fare for big powers acting through multilateral institutions, but until recently China stood aloof. In order to play the multilateral game effectively, nations must find common ground with each other; they must also have a degree of trust in the multilateral framework itself. China is now using the political capital it has built up with both the US and Russia since September 11 to push for a UN-backed solution to Iraq, and an approach to the Korean peninsula crisis that does not isolate the northern side.
It is one of the surprising and promising developments of this season of war that China should emerge as an effective counterweight in an institution that the United States invented, at a time when the US seems to be playing fast and loose with its own creation.