Focus on democracy
By now, everyone knows that Hong Kong is suffering from a deep economic and social malaise. Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa has repeatedly been called upon to either step aside or sit back. Overall, there is little confidence in the government as a whole. What is to be done?
It is highly improbable that the central authorities will agree to replace Mr Tung before his term is up. After all, they appointed him to a second term less than a year ago. So forcing him out would be a clear sign they had made a mistake, something they are unlikely to do.
Moreover, little can be done on the economic front. With the rest of the world, we are in for a long period of economic uncertainty. However, this does not mean that nothing can be done about Hong Kong's malaise; in fact, quite the opposite.
There is something this government can do, but it would go against its grain. It is to propose political reforms to expedite the development of democracy.
Suggesting political reform has been anathema to the Hong Kong government since its establishment. Mr Tung entered office in 1997 believing that the special administrative region (SAR) had been too politicised and set about to de-politicise Hong Kong. But his annual policy addresses have been devoid of proposals on this front.
It is time to change course. Some countries go to war to take its citizens' minds off other problems. Hong Kong does not need to go that far. What the government should do is to lead a public debate on the speed and manner in which the SAR's democratisation should proceed. This is the one issue that, next to the economy, will capture people's attention. Moreover, it is something that the government should be doing anyway, since the Basic Law sets as the ultimate goal the election of all members of the legislature - and of the chief executive - by universal suffrage.
Mr Tung has, up to now, deliberately refrained from making any proposals regarding the road ahead for Hong Kong. But now we have waited almost six years, it is time to proceed. The Constitutional Affairs Bureau no doubt has already drafted all kinds of plans.
The government must take the lead by making proposals so that a society-wide discussion can take place. Surveys have repeatedly shown that democratisation enjoys widespread support among all segments of the populace, but concrete steps - and a timetable - need to be debated. Let me suggest that we set 2012 as the target date when both the entire legislature and the chief executive will be elected by universal suffrage.
Why 2012? Well, that is the year when elections for the chief executive and for Legco coincide. This will not happen again until 2032, by which time the SAR will only have 15 years left of its 50-year life expectancy. Having a legislature that is directly elected without a chief executive elected through universal suffrage is untenable, since the chief executive will lack the mandate possessed by the legislature.
If 2012 is accepted, then the Election Committee will elect a chief executive one more time, in 2007. Assuming that person does well in his first term, it will allow him or her to seek a second term with a popular mandate.
As for Legco, the elections next year will produce a legislature in which half the seats are directly elected and half are filled by functional constituencies. For the first time, no legislator will be returned by the Election Committee.
We will then have to decide how to phase out functional constituencies and increase the number of directly elected seats. The simplest way is to do it in two steps, cutting functional seats to 15 in 2008 and doing away with them in 2012.
Of course, there will have to be much discussion as to which functional seats should be abolished first and which should be retained for another term. It is also conceivable for more functional seats to be reduced in 2008 than in 2012. Those are the kind of things that need to be debated.
Such a debate will have the effect of focusing people's minds on something other than their economic woes. If the government makes specific proposals for democratisation that win public support, it will also have the delightful effect of raising its standing.
Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator
