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Arroyo's U-turn a breach of public trust, say analysts

Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's decision to stand in next May's presidential elections is viewed by political scientists as unwise and a breach of public trust.

Yesterday's move was expected, despite an announcement last December that she would not be a candidate.

Analysts questioned her strategy when polls showed levels of support and trust falling amid worsening economic and employment data. The president of the Centre for Asia-Pacific Studies, Clarita Carlos, was most critical, saying Mrs Arroyo's U-turn was another example of flaws in her presidency.

'There are many, many things this administration has to account for,' Dr Carlos said from Manila.

'Changing her mind or breaching the trust to her is minor. Let her change her mind and let the electorate make a decision.'

Dr Carlos, the former president of the Philippine National Defence College, believed the Arroyo administration had created a dangerous situation by not doing enough to stamp out corruption, alleviate poverty and improve economic development - despite frequent pledges to do so.

'We've reached a point where we're either indifferent, alienated or we just don't care,' she said.

'We just want to improve our lives and we're sick and tired of the promises. That is the danger that the administration has to watch out for - a widespread alienation in society is a hair's breadth away from violence and acts of aggression.'

The latest poll by the respected Manila consultancy Pulse Asia showed support for the president last month had fallen 10 percentage points from August to 41 per cent. Public trust for her fell 8 per cent to 36 per cent over the month.

Pulse Asia's research director, Felipe Miranda, a professor of political science at the University of the Philippines, said the declining quality of life for Filipinos was taking its toll on Mrs Arroyo's ratings.

Recent opinion polls in Philippine newspapers charting support for declared presidential candidates have variously placed Mrs Arroyo second or third, behind Senator Noli de Castro and former education secretary Raul Roco. Actor Fernando Poe, a friend of ex-president Joseph Estrada - who Mrs Arroyo replaced in January 2001 - has previously topped surveys, but denies he intends to stand.

Political scientist at De La Salle University, Alfredo Robles, was disappointed by Mrs Arroyo's decision. 'The Philippines has more than enough politicians who do not keep their promises.' He noted Mrs Arroyo's late father, ex-president Diodado Macapagal, had reneged on an announcement not to stand for re-election and unwittingly created the Philippines' darkest days.

Macapagal won the 1961 presidential election, but his about-face on standing in the 1965 poll led to a falling out with fellow Liberal Party member Ferdinand Marcos.

Marcos formed his own political party, ran against Macapagal, and won. He was re-elected, but declared martial law in 1972 and ruled as a military dictator until he was ousted by a revolt in 1986.

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