Elegant Fashion has trophy at her mercy
High-class mare Elegant Fashion - a classic winner in two hemispheres - has to just hold the form from her first-up third to Prime Witness in the National Day Cup for connections to walk away with today's Sha Tin Trophy safely in their keeping.
Elegant Fashion's return to racing was simply superb, clocking amazingly fast sectionals off a slow and unsuitable pace at a distance (1,400 metres) which is short of optimum for her. The talented mare will appreciate the extra 200 metres today and the run has undoubtedly advanced her fitness, though she's still on the way up and will not be expected to peak until December.
Despite her tremendous quality, the Sha Tin Trophy will not be easy pickings for the Danewin mare, as she is closely matched with the likes of Meridian Star and Self Flit, who finished alongside her in The National Day Cup. Self Flit has to be considered a winning chance with the move up to a mile, and it should be remembered he did beat her over this course and distance in The Classic Mile in February.
He is going to benefit from a likely steady tempo, and should be near peak condition given this will be his third outing this term. Meridian Star is one of the most consistent horses in local racing, but has not been rewarded with a win in a long time. As he is conceding weight all round - and will give most rivals a start as well - he may have to be content with another minor placing.
The form lines from the National Day Cup do not inspire confidence in Dr More, who finished 11th, beaten five lengths. He does not appear to have come back this season in the best of form and is better watched until he shows signs of improvement. River Dancer finished ninth behind Prime Witness and although he will appreciate the step up in trip would certainly prefer even further and would do well to hit the frame. Red Pepper (eighth) put in a respectable performance in the National Day Cup but looks to be on his mark in the ratings and it's hard to see him featuring.
Come See You never looked likely to threaten when beating only one runner to the post behind Prime Witness. He was in desperate need of the outing and while further improvement can be expected he should find this trip on the sharp side and his fitness wanting.
Tony Cruz is well represented with both Raider and Hidden Dragon proving worthy contenders. Felix Coetzee has opted to ride the former, which is a good guide, and the Derby hopeful must be respected on the strength of several solid performances last season.
Hidden Dragon lost little in defeat at the hands of Cheerful Fortune last time over 1,200 metres and has clearly picked up where he left off last term. He must be given a good chance of figuring in the finish if given an easy time out in the lead. Gift is stepping out for the first time this season but did win at the first time of asking last season over the course and distance. Admittedly that victory came against inferior opposition, but he is well weighted against this company and from gate one should have every chance.
Multiwinning is the fourth John Size entry, and looks the least likely of the quartet to feature. He has not been overly impressive on either outing this season, and he would need to produce his finest local effort to even place.
Golconda is another that could lead, and based on his third to Visorhill does warrant closer attention. However, in assessing his overall form it would be hard to envisage him troubling several runners in this line up.
Ferrule has not been in the same form as last term and has not shown any spark since changing stables. Based on current form he can be safely ruled out.
One of the more interesting entries is Industrial Success, who won at the end of last season on a soft track over 1,800 metres. There was a lot to like about the manner in which he recently won a turf trial over the course and distance and he must be kept safe as he is potentially a genuine Premier class horse.
