Hearts and minds
The democratisation of Taiwan over the past decade, which saw Lee Teng-hui as the first elected president in 1996 and Chen Shui-bian as the first opposition leader to be elected head of state, has also seen a startling transformation in society, with profound implications for cross-strait relations. A visit to Taiwan shows that nowhere is this more apparent than in the way people identify themselves.
While in 1993, just over a third of the population classed themselves as Chinese, data assembled by Professor Chu Yun-han, of the Institute of Political Science of the Academia Sinica, shows that, by last year, only 7.9 per cent of the electorate described themselves as Chinese.
By contrast, those who identified themselves as Taiwanese, rather than Chinese, rose dramatically, from 27.1 per cent in 1993 to 38 per cent last year. Interestingly, however, those who identified themselves as both Chinese and Taiwanese now make up the biggest segment of the population, rising from 33.8 per cent in 1993 to 50.6 per cent last year.
In a sense, democratisation and 'Taiwanisation' are inevitably linked, since the vast majority of the population is Taiwanese. In the past, the Kuomintang monopolised political power, with virtually all key posts held by those who fled mainland China in 1949 when communist forces won the civil war.
Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek insisted that the administration, transferred to Taipei, continued to represent all of China. Elections could not be held, the administration argued, until the mainland and Taiwan were reunited. Thus, all organs of government were frozen as of 1949, with mainlanders in charge.
However, after the death of Chiang in 1975, his son Chiang Ching-kuo gradually relaxed political controls, including the lifting of martial law. After the younger Chiang's death in 1988, Taiwan's political system opened up under Lee Teng-hui, the first Taiwanese to govern Taiwan.
Since mainlanders accounted for only 15 per cent of the population, it was natural that the introduction of elections saw Taiwanese being overwhelmingly elected. But, more importantly, Taiwan has seen two presidents in succession who favour independence. Mr Lee had, in 1999, suggested 'special state-to-state relations' between Taiwan and the mainland, making it clear that the two are separate countries. Although Mr Chen pledged not to write Mr Lee's formula into the constitution, he has come out with his own - 'one country on each side' of the Taiwan Strait.
Moreover, since he assumed office, Mr Chen has presided over a determined effort to de-Sinicise Taiwan. China is being presented as a foreign country, one with which Taiwan wants to have good relations, but nonetheless a foreign country.
Under these circumstances, it is perhaps not surprising that the number of people who identify themselves as Chinese has dropped, with a concomitant increase in those who identify themselves as Taiwanese. What is interesting is the jump in the number who identify themselves as both Chinese and Taiwanese.
Still, the bottom line is that whereas 10 years ago, those who identified themselves as Chinese, or as both Chinese and Taiwanese, was 67.2 per cent, by last year that had dropped to 58.5 per cent.
But de-Sinicisation is by no means an easy process. After all, Chinese culture is strongly entrenched in Taiwan. Half a million Taiwanese now live on the mainland and many students go to university there. And, among people aged 20 to 35, fewer identify themselves as either Chinese or Taiwanese, compared with the older generation, while most see themselves as both. The battle for the hearts and minds of the people of Taiwan is by no means over.
Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator
