Elections could see 'political tsunami'
If enough people vote, pro-government parties might be ousted, pollster says
Tomorrow's district council elections could be a 'political tsunami' where a massive turnout of voters pushes pro-government parties out of power, according to a veteran pollster.
The pre-election survey has found a great surge of dissatisfaction with the Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong.
Public dissatisfaction with the pro-government DAB has surged to 74 per cent from 53 per cent in the last election, in 1999, according to a poll conducted by the Hong Kong Transition Project and Civic Exchange, last week.
Of the 835 respondents, only 26 per cent said they were satisfied with the pro-government party - almost half the number of four years ago.
Satisfaction with the Democrats dropped only one percentage point, to 47 per cent.
The findings came as a separate survey conducted by the University of Hong Kong this week found 74 per cent of respondents said they planned to vote - which is likely to translate into a high turnout of up to 40 per cent. Thirty seven per cent said they had already decided who to vote for - nine percentage points higher than the figure on the eve of the 1999 election.
The poll about the DAB also found satisfaction with the government has slumped by half, to only 20 per cent from 41 per cent during the last election. Among those who said they usually voted, 78 per cent claimed to be dissatisfied with Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa.
Michael DeGolyer, director of the project, said voters had never before been so angry and willing to express disapproval of individual parties. Strategic voting was not common in past elections, he said.
'We may be looking at a tsunami on Sunday, just like July 1, where a large body of people would seemingly come out from nowhere. This will not be your typical election. The likelihood is that when they get [to the polling stations], they won't be voting for friends of Tung,' Dr DeGolyer said.
He said if the turnout rate approached 40 per cent, a landslide victory for pro-democracy candidates was possible - especially since only 21 per cent of those who are satisfied with the DAB planned to vote, compared to the 42 per cent supporting the Democrats.
Robert Chung Ting-yiu, director of the university's public opinion programme, said the turnout rate could well reach 40 per cent.
The turnout rate in 1999 was 35.8 per cent. Among those who have participated in demonstrations following July 1, 81 per cent said they would vote tomorrow.
