Expats needed to plug gap in population forecasts
A forecast of Hong Kong's population 27 years from now will be overestimated unless there is a huge increase in the number of expatriate arrivals, an expert says.
The Planning Department forecast in the study 'Hong Kong 2030', published on Tuesday, predicts the current population of 6.8 million will rise to 9.2 million by 2030, half a million more than the 8.7 million projected by the Census and Statistics Department in May last year. The latest projection will assist long-term planning on housing supply.
Paul Yip Siu-fai, a senior statistics lecturer at the University of Hong Kong, said he was puzzled to find the higher estimate amid a declining birth rate.
He said the Census and Statistics Department had adjusted its earlier estimate of 9.2 million to 8.7 million last year due to the lower fertility rate, and pointed out that the departments had used different methods and criteria.
'I still have doubts over the revised figure [of 8.7 million],' Dr Yip said. 'To fill the gaps, there should be an annual increase of 10,000 or 20,000 investment migrants and expatriate professionals. But I have reservations as to whether [government] immigration schemes are so attractive.'
A Planning Department spokesman said the census department used population trends while his department had used a projection based on the vision that Hong Kong would become a world-class city, attracting more professionals, expatriate workers and their families.
Billy Li Yuek-goat, a statistical officer from the Census and Statistics Department, said: 'Different policy bureaus which want to achieve particular visions might adopt their own scenarios to project future populations.'
