Give the rhetoric a rest, Mr Chen
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's re-election bid, even with many months remaining before the vote, has not wanted for drama. In his first presidential campaign, Mr Chen took deft advantage of the mainland's insistence that Taiwan is part of China to win votes. And as events of recent weeks show, Mr Chen is at it again.
His push for a referendum law this autumn, and his more recent proposal for a vote on whether Beijing should remove missiles aimed at Taiwan from the mainland's east coast, are crafted to step right up to the central government's red lines, but without crossing over them. At a rally yesterday, Mr Chen went as far as declaring Taiwan already a sovereign country and not part of China.
If these words and actions seem provocative, it is because they are meant to be. For Mr Chen, the recent statements are a way of testing the limits and simultaneously scoring points with the electorate. Indeed, the referendum antics have helped boost his standing in the polls. It is also apparent that his latest outbursts were calculated to provoke a response from Premier Wen Jiabao during his four-day state visit to the United States, which begins today.
Realists on both sides of the strait, and in the US, say Mr Chen has no intention of doing anything akin to declaring independence. Any move in that direction would provoke a certain response from the United States, the ally upon which Taiwan depends for its security, but also an ally that has been pursuing a policy of constructive diplomatic engagement with the mainland.
There are indications that the US has already done just this, by sending diplomatic envoys and through a public statement to convey the message that it would oppose any referendum that moves in the direction of independence.
This leaves the question of what the mainland response should be. So far, there has been no show of military strength similar to the 1996 lobbing of missiles into Taiwanese shipping lanes, which drew a naval response from the US and helped sweep Mr Chen into office.
But there have been strong words of warning from Beijing, and there will surely be more during Mr Wen's US trip. He will also be seeking American promises to reduce weapons sales to Taiwan and strongly worded commitments to the 'one China' principle.
Trade tensions not withstanding, there has been a thawing of relations between the US and China. The US also finds that it needs China's co-operation on several fronts, from negotiating with the North Koreans over nuclear weapons development to bringing peace and stability to Iraq. Analysts say the Americans cannot afford the distraction of heightened conflict between the mainland and Taiwan and will, for its part, be encouraging both sides not to force the issue.
We have up to now advocated a measured response by Beijing to Mr Chen's provocations, and it is a response that remains appropriate, even in the face of recent events. We would say that Mr Chen should reciprocate by acting in an equally cool and calm manner instead of playing a dangerous game of provoking the central government as a means of courting the pro-independence vote.
If he goes too far down the path of declaring independence, it would mean abandonment by the US, the one ally Taiwan needs most, and certain war with the mainland. Economic ties between the mainland and Taiwan are increasingly binding the island's prosperity to stability in the cross-strait relationship. Most of the electorate clearly prefers the status quo over other, more confrontational, options. In the interests of peace across the Taiwan Strait and in the region, Mr Chen should tone down his rhetoric.
