Potential is there for a solution in North Korea
In July, North Korea announced that it had reprocessed 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods and was on its way to making nuclear weapons. The claim was part of a pattern that repeated itself countless times last year. Kim Jong-il would hint that he had nuclear weapons capabilities and intentions, but because he had expelled UN inspectors from the country more than a year ago, there was no way to verify any of the claims. So the standoff - chiefly between North Korea and the United States - continues.
Now comes the revelation that a team of nuclear experts may be visiting North Korea's main nuclear plant sometime next week. Despite the US government's disavowal of any connection to this delegation, the potential is there for a breakthrough that would push forward what has become an achingly slow negotiation process.
There are simultaneous reports that the US, Japan and South Korea may offer North Korea some kind of an energy deal when six-way talks resume again. This is crucial. There will be demands for Kim Jong-il to drop all his nuclear programmes, even those meant to produce non-weapons-grade nuclear fuel.
Apparently, the three countries want the now-mothballed nuclear power plants being built as part of the 1994 deal with North Korea to be dismantled altogether. But that the replacement of these plants with other means of generating power, and the resumption of fuel shipments, should be part of the deal.
One of the keys to understanding North Korea's erratic behaviour has to be its desperate need for power to keep its economy from collapsing. It has been 14 months since the inspectors were asked to leave the Yongbyon plant, said to be the centre of the country's nuclear programme. At this time last year, North Korea was pledging to build up its military capabilities in response to threats from the US - as evidenced by the country's inclusion in Mr Bush's 'axis of evil'.
It was also getting ready to renounce the UN nuclear non-proliferation treaty, dashing any hopes of bringing outsiders back in to monitor the plant. The permission to visit the country's key nuclear site offers the first chance since then to know whether Mr Kim's claims are plausible.
Seen in the most generous light, it would also signal his interest in striking a bargain.
The likelihood is that the agreement will bear little resemblance to the 1994 deal. That arrangement offered help with building nuclear power plants for non-military purposes. This approach has lost a great deal of credibility since then, in North Korea and elsewhere.
Hints have been dropped that Mr Kim will be offered security guarantees. If these are combined with help in building non-nuclear power plants and food aid, there is hope for a more lasting solution.
