Traffic at main ports forecast to grow at a slower pace
Container throughput growth at the mainland's main ports is expected to slow this year as regulatory changes and trade disputes restrain exports and economic expansion.
Credit Suisse First Boston chief economist Dong Tao said throughput would slow because it was coming off last year's high base. In addition, exports would register smaller growth.
According to the Ministry of Communications, mainland container throughput grew 31.5 per cent in the first 11 months last year, while exports for the year jumped 32 per cent over 2002.
Government authorities have forecast export growth of just 15 per cent this year, but BNP Paribas China chief economist Chen Xingdong was less optimistic, saying export growth would fall below 10 per cent.
'The central government has phased in some regulatory changes, such as restricting land use or raising entry points to curb investment scale. With less investment, demand for raw materials will slow, which will affect imports and exports,' Mr Chen said.
'The three-percentage-point cut in tax rebates for exports is also a disincentive for trade. In addition, China's trade disputes will be a problem.'
But while the mainland may be entering a weaker export cycle, the flourishing heavy industry in the north provides room for ports in the Bohai Rim to expand throughput volumes, given their relatively low base.
Qingdao ports, the busiest facilities in the north, moved 4.23 million teu (20-foot equivalent units) across its docks last year, up 24 per cent from 2002. Dalian saw throughput rise 23.6 per cent to 1.67 million boxes, while the Tianjin Port Authority estimated it handled more than three million teu, about 25 per cent more than 2002.
The growth rates are considerably moderate compared with southern facilities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai, which saw container throughput jump 39.8 per cent and 30 per cent respectively. Ningbo, a neighbouring city of Shanghai, saw throughput surge 49 per cent to 2.75 million boxes.
Michael Chan, head of research, transport and logistics, at Bank of China International, expected throughput growth at Qingdao to increase 35 per cent this year. But growth in Shenzhen and Shanghai would narrow to 30 per cent and 20 per cent respectively because of their high bases.
