The Duke can prevail in three-way battle royale
The $1.6 million East Point Handicap is the feature event at Sha Tin this afternoon and will be highlighted by the clash between Figures, The Duke and Gem Of India, who return to battle following an enthralling three-way finish in the Chinese New Year Cup over 1,400 metres on January 24.
It was Figures who prevailed by a short head that day in a magnificent battle but the Caspar Fownes-trained The Duke is tipped to gain revenge in what should be another gripping contest, where there will be no margin for error.
One reason for The Duke getting the nod ahead of his main rivals is that as he finished third, he only received two points in the ratings and meets both on better terms today. Although he has drawn awkwardly in gate 12, he is likely to press forward and possibly lead without too much pressure. The potential for an easy lead is a major plus.
Fownes must be given plenty of credit for keeping The Duke in excellent form for virtually the entire season and the consistency of this longshot Derby prospect has been first class. Interestingly, his sole win this season came over 1,400 metres on the C+3 course when annihilating his opposition in the Chevalier Cup.
Shane Dye replaces Robbie Fradd aboard John Size-trained Gem Of India, who has also been a model of consistency. He has never missed the frame from nine starts over the course and distance and the advantage he has today is he should be saving ground from gate six.
The win from Figures last time kept that horse's perfect record over 1,400 metres - two starts for two wins - and he showed real tenacity on the way to victory. Figures meets The Duke and Gem Of India on three and two pounds' worse terms respectively, which is enough to force him back to be third elect. In addition, Figures had the perfect trip last time and from gate 13 today, he is likely to find it much tougher.
Green Channel (eighth) and Medic Corps (10th) also competed in the Chinese New Year Cup and ran quite well in defeat. The former is open to a fair amount of improvement, remembering that run was his first local outing, and he will no doubt be fitter because of it.
He would probably prefer a shade further but is a nice prospect. Tony Cruz-trained Medic Corps was having his first run in eight months and he too will have progressed since that race.
The qualify of the effort was magnified by the veterinary report, which showed he subsequently scoped with a 'significant amount of blood' in his trachea, which resulted from a laceration of the tongue. The five-time winner over the course and distance is drawn to get the run of the race, and although stable jockey Felix Coetzee has opted to ride Flying Machine in preference, Medic Corps is a value chance.
Flying Machine has been in cracking form this season having missed the frame only once in five starts. If the C+3 course is favouring swoopers then Flying Machine rates a top chance with his trademark powerful finish.
The drop in grade for Smart Winner means he has to concede weight to all rivals but his second to Hidden Dragon on New Year's Day in the Chinese Club Challenge Cup was arguably his finest performance this season. He beat both The Duke and Gem Of India that day and as he meets them on better terms today, he must be considered a leading fancy.
It has been a barren run recently for three-time champion trainer Ivan Allan. His last winner was on December 20 with Fantastic Star and that was his only winner for that month.
His entrant here, Visorhill, has enjoyed the luck of the drawn with gate one and has the services of French ace Gerald Mosse.
On the positive side, he can win when fresh as he showed when winning back on September 6 on his seasonal reappearance in the Kwangtung Handicap Cup over 1,400 metres. The obvious concern is that he strikes race-hardened opposition but following a light preparation he will benefit from the run.
Blue Stitch returns to the track following a good effort when eighth to Falbrav in the Hong Kong Cup back in December. He is another that will probably come on for the run, although he does have the quality to be right in the finish. This is an easier test than he has faced in recent starts and he therefore deserves a good deal of respect.
There was very little about the debut of Insociable to get a form analyst excited. He was beaten a distance, and although most from Size's yard improve considerably second up, it is difficult to envisage him mounting a challenge.
Triple Expresso has failed to hit the frame on all eight starts over the course and distance and he looks safely held today.
Kiddyland has been a bitter disappointment this season and may need to drop further in the ratings before being followed.
One Step Ahead tackles stronger opposition here and lacks the class to warrant inclusion.