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Hunt on for ways to fix the cash crunch

Joseph Lo

Economists raise doubts over government bonds

If you run out of cash before pay day, what do you do? Borrow money from a friend, perhaps? Get a cash advance from your credit card? Draw a line of credit from the bank?

Yet economists say the government is unlikely to raise its borrowing to help fund an operating deficit estimated at about $68 billion for the current financial year and $38 billion next year.

The administration has been desperately trying to raise money to help cover its budgetary shortfalls.

This month it announced a capital restructuring plan for the Airport Authority it hopes will return $6 billion to government coffers sometime during the next financial year.

Legislators also approved a plan to raise $6 billion by selling bonds backed by the future toll revenues from five government-owned tunnels and the Lantau Link expressway.

The government has promised that both projects will be targeted at least partly at retail investors to help build a strong local bond market.

But economists say the government will not issue so-called 'general revenue bonds', akin to treasury and savings bonds in the US aimed at small household investors, to help fund its budgetary shortfall.

Hang Seng Bank chief economist Vincent Kwan said: 'The government still has substantial cash reserves, almost $300 billion as of last March. So they can cover the deficit ... there is no need to borrow for it.'

But the government has indicated that it will issue bonds to fund infrastructure projects, such as the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge and a new sewerage scheme. It is understood that the bonds will target the public and help stimulate development of the local bond market.

Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce economist David O'Rear said that from a technical viewpoint, it may not be easy for the administration to push bonds not linked to cash flow from an underlying asset.

Because of Hong Kong's currency board arrangement, local interest rates are generally benchmarked to those of the US.

If the government were to issue its own bonds, it would have the side effect of creating a separate benchmark interest rate regime, he said.

In times of market turmoil, this could create additional volatility, something that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has worked hard to iron out of the system.

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