Tang's job theories need a lot more work
FINANCIAL SECRETARY Henry Tang Ying-yen is taking on some of the ways of his predecessor. In announcing the unemployment figures on Thursday, he introduced his own thoughts on why the jobless rate is high and, shades of the past, those ramblings contradicted the government's own studies.
The figures show that both the labour force and the number of jobs in Hong Kong grew by an average of 10,000 a month in the three months to February. The jobless rate thus remained unchanged at 7 per cent but seasonal adjustment rendered the published headline figure as 7.2 per cent, down from 7.3 per cent.
Explaining why the labour force grew so much, Mr Tang said: 'There are more and more people who are joining the labour force for the first time, or again, simply because they feel that the economy is improving, so they have joined the labour force hoping to find work.'
And, to make sure his audience got the point, he twice repeated the message. The effort could better have gone into looking up the statistics that the government maintains on jobs and joblessness. Among these data series is one on labour force participation rate, in other words, the percentage of employable people actually working or looking for work.
The first chart shows the participation rate since 1999 for the labour force overall and, unless I have been standing on my head, the line on the right side of that chart goes down.
I shall admit that I have the figures only to January and that the February number could be up. I am not sure, however, that Mr Tang had the February number at hand. I do not think it is out yet and his words certainly give the impression that rising labour force participation has been the trend for at least several months.
Very well, perhaps he was really referring only to 'people who are joining the labour force for the first time', which would have to be predominantly younger people.
It still will not work. The second chart shows you the labour force participation rate for people aged 15 to 24. There is more of a seasonal up and down here but the overall trend is still firmly down, not up.
Yes, Henry, it should have been up. It stands to reason that people will be more confident of finding work when the economy recovers. Sorry to say, however, that facts do not always conform to reason and you did not bother to check the facts.
But there is more. As an indication of employer demand, Mr Tang noted that the Labour Department had 'recorded a 70 per cent increase in vacancies in the last month alone'.
I am not quite sure what this means. Was he referring to new vacancies registered or total outstanding vacancies and over what base period is that 70 per cent calculated? Never mind. Data shows that the total number of vacancies registered at the Labour Department in February was 8,980. Last September, that number was 38,597.
No, I do not know quite what to make of those figures. Perhaps all those earlier vacancies were filled. I do not seem to see evidence here, however, of the Labour Department's vacancy rolls swelling as employers post new jobs.
And then we have Mr Tang telling us: 'We are becoming more and more of a knowledge-based economy and a knowledge-based economy requires people who are of a certain standard, so I think the skills mismatch is going to be a challenge for us.'
Well, if we have indeed become so knowledge-based, Sir, and if this has put such a strain on the available pool of talented people, could you please tell me why the number of unemployed managers, administrators, professionals and associate professionals has tripled over the last six years to 33,800?
Seems to me that intoning the chief executive's mantras on a knowledge-based economy will not change it into one and there is a good reason for this. We already have a knowledge-based economy.
Please open your eyes, Sir, and accept that knowledge consists of more than microchip design. Can you not see that you actually insult your own people by implying that they are not up to your standard?
