A road of no return
With the dispute over the Taiwan presidential election now in its second week, we are no closer to knowing if a recount will confirm President Chen Shui-bian as the winner or will give the presidency to his challenger, Lien Chan, chairman of the Kuomintang. Similarly, we are no closer to finding out the truth behind the shooting of Mr Chen and Vice-President Annette Lu Hsiu-lien the day before the election.
Hopefully, the arrival of several experts will give the investigation new momentum. But disputes between Mr Lien and Mr Chen are likely to delay any recount, which both men say they want to be conducted as soon as possible.
The closeness of the election shows that whoever governs Taiwan in the next four years will have an extremely difficult job. One good sign is that Mr Chen said he wants to be president of all 23 million people, rather than just of those who voted for him. He has also said he no longer has to worry about a re-election campaign. Hopefully, this means he will no longer feel a need to push the envelope where independence is concerned to make sure he retains the loyalty of his core supporters.
As for Mr Lien, in the unlikely event that he should become president, he will find it necessary to keep checking the pulse of the Taiwan public. During the campaign, he had to backtrack several times, first opposing an initiative by Mr Chen, then, when he discovered that the voters supported it, jumping on the bandwagon himself, often by saying that he would go even further.
But both men have behaved responsibly in general in the aftermath of the election. After violence broke out on Friday at the Central Election Commission, the next day Mr Lien and his vice-presidential candidate, James Soong Chu-yu of the People First Party, both took pains to ensure that the mass rally was peaceful and that most of the demonstrators left the square in front of the presidential office that night.
Mr Chen also deserves credit, for exhorting his own followers not to take to the streets, going so far as to tell them to leave Taipei on Saturday if possible and, if not, to stay at home. He even urged them not to watch TV for fear that listening to the pro-Lien demonstrators may cause his followers to lose control and rush into the streets.
The mass rally before the presidential office recalled the pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen Square 15 years ago, with young people waving flags and shouting pro-democratic slogans. But Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, who is also vice-chairman of the KMT, did an exemplary job of clearing the square. The police did not use water cannon or nightsticks. Two or more officers picked up each demonstrator to remove him or her from the scene. It was a display of professionalism that could have benefited law enforcement officers in other jurisdictions, especially the mainland.
As far as the political parties are concerned, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party is clearly on its way up. It won 39 per cent of the vote four years ago and, this time, it won 50.1 per cent, capturing areas that used to be solidly pro-KMT. Even in the unlikely event that Mr Chen should lose in a recount, the DPP is well positioned to strive to become the majority party in the legislature at the elections scheduled for December.
However, the two opposition parties are not as well positioned. Their leaders, Mr Lien and Mr Soong, are both in their 60s and have been defeated twice, so this is undoubtedly their last hurrah. It is inconceivable that they can run for president again.
If Mr Lien retires, the KMT will be drastically revamped, with a younger generation taking over - people such as Mr Ma, or Jason Hu Chih-chiang, the mayor of Taichung, both of whom are political stars. But they are mainlanders on an island where Taiwanese ethnic identity is strengthening, not weakening. The KMT itself may split between mainlander and Taiwanese factions.
Mr Soong's party, the PFP, is in an even worse situation. Since it is primarily a one-man party, his retirement will leave the party not only without a leader but without a purpose as well. The party may disappear, its members absorbed by the KMT.
And so, four years from now, when Taiwan girds for another presidential election, all the faces will be different, and so will the political landscape. Taiwan has clearly gone down a road of no return, with a strengthening sense of national identity. This will pose a challenge to the mainland. Most importantly, Beijing should reassess its demand that Taiwan accept a 'one China' principle before any dialogue can resume.
Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator
