In fact, Mr Thaksin's policy miscalculations, his arrogance and bungling have exacerbated the situation in Thailand's 'deep south'. Indeed, his failure to control the violence, as well as his much publicised mismanagement of last year's bird flu epidemic, have derailed his broader ambitions to assume the de facto leadership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Mr Thaksin's divisive and authoritarian manner as well as his 'black-and-white' approach to governance has angered and outraged the Muslim population. Abhisit Vejjajiva, a prominent opposition figure said: 'There was a clear and positive trend in the south before Thaksin assumed power. The situation had improved considerably under the Democrat administration. Frankly, Thaksin's mis-steps demonstrate the limitations of his aggressive 'business' approach to the infinitely more-complex task of managing a nation.'

Much of the credit for the initial peace in the south must go to the strong leadership of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, as well as systems of power- and information-sharing between the different sections of the administration and the security forces.

While the system was flawed, it did at least create a peaceful and manageable environment. Moreover, there was an acknowledgment of the region's very different ethos and cultural practices, as well as attempts to accommodate the wishes of local leaders. However, Mr Thaksin ignored and then dismantled these painstakingly developed systems and imposed martial law, creating more anti-government sentiment.

His attempts to shift authority from the army to the police have also backfired. Officers lack the requisite knowledge, experience and firepower to deal with the challenges. The centralisation of power has worsened the situation. Certainly, Mr Thaksin's initiation of a high-profile, anti-drug war last year (in which an estimated 2,500 people died in a series of extra-judicial killings) displayed a worrying disregard for established legal processes.

Somphon Wongchanglaw, a political analyst with a Bangkok-based think-tank, said: 'Thaksin sought to employ the same strategy in his war on drugs in the south. This only resulted in alienating the Muslim population even more.'

An added embarrassment has been claims that members of his Thai Rak Thai party masterminded a January 4 raid on the Narathiwat Rajanakarin army base in the south. If proved, they will make a mockery of Mr Thaksin's much-vaunted tough stance on law and order, and will further undermine his party's flagging credibility as a force for change and reform.

The situation will only be overcome when Mr Thaksin manages to control his personal weaknesses as a leader. His authoritarian style, policy about-faces and rash decisions have confused administrators, security forces and local leaders. Mr Thaksin will only succeed in pacifying the south if he learns from the past; violence will only beget violence. He should endeavour to reach out to the Muslim population - both its religious and secular leaders. He must respect the wishes of the Muslim community, and recognise its legitimate desire to preserve its own schools and language. It is not too late to disprove Huntington.

Karim Raslan is a lawyer and writer based in Kuala Lumpur