Has HK property market peaked?
HAS Hong Kong's property market peaked? Statistics seem to indicate that they have but property experts say investors will have to wait till October to find out.
Chris Marriott, senior associate for Brooke Hillier Parker (BHP) said a Monetary Authority report showing an increase in the cash figure of loans applied and drawn down was a reflection of buyers with loan packages that were secured before restrictive lending policies were put in place.
''They are simply taking their loans up by the specified time period,'' he said.
BHP has predicted the mass market would slow down and possibly show negative growth as lending restrictions take effect.
But market analysts expressed surprise to see Monetary Authority statistics showing the leasing market to be keeping pace with sales because the former normally trails the latter.
''In contrast to the sales market, the leasing market is likely to remain very active with possible rental increases of 10 to 15 per cent in the next six months as stock remains in short supply,'' Mr Marriott said.
The fact there has been no significant release of new buildings for rent over the past 12 to 18 months should not help matters for tenants already overwhelmed by mounting rent prices.
What is more, buyers squeezed out of the tightening sales market are more likely to resort to leasing, making the already limited rental supply even narrower.
An example of this is Dynasty Court in Mid-Levels where the vacancy rate would be no more than 0.5 per cent and where rental prices have risen nearly 20 per cent in three months.
But the sales market has showed some signs of levelling off, according to the latest BHP property report.
Both Kowloon and the New Territories have reported price decreases from August provisional figures.
For the New Territories, Class-B (431 - 752 square foot) and Class-C (753-1,076 sq ft) prices dropped 1.1 per cent in August, in contrast to July when both reported strong increases.
Class-B flats were selling for $2,730 per sq ft in July and are currently set at $2,700, while Class-C flats selling for $3,166 per sq ft in July are now $3,130.
Class-A (below 430 sq ft) flats showed a slight increase of .03 per cent as prices set at $3,089 per sq ft in July edged up to $3,090 in August.
Kowloon showed minimal decreases in both A and D (1076 sq ft and over) classes. Class-A flats selling for $3,256 per sq ft in July dropped to $3,250 in August, a 0.2 per cent climb. Class-D flats, selling for $4,400 per sq ft fell to $4,350 in August, a 1.1 per cent drop.
Class-B flats reported a 0.3 per cent increase as July prices set at $3,680 per sq ft climbed to $3,690 in August, while Class-C flats reported a 0.5 per cent increase as July's price of $3,988 rose to $4,010.
Sha Tin also reported a slight price decrease of 0.9 per cent. Flats were selling for $3,297 per sq ft in July and are currently selling for $3,265.
The only sector to report a general increase was Hong Kong island. Class-B and C flats climbed 1.7 and 1.6 per cent respectively, while Class D flats fell 1.4 per cent.
Class D flats were $5,020 per sq ft in July compared with $4,950 now. Class-C flats were $4,457 in July compared with $4,530 now and Class-B flats were selling for $4,127 in July and are now $4,200.
