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India changes leaders and alters course

Yet another act in India's post-election drama appears to have been concluded with Dr Manmohan Singh's appointment as the new prime minister of India and the compilation of his brand new cabinet of union and state ministers.

Dr Singh's assignment to the premiership follows Italian born Sonia Gandhi's refusal to lead India. This preceded vociferous reactions from the rival NDA alliance who suffered an unexpected electoral defeat, and vowed to boycott Mrs Gandhi's swearing in ceremony citing it as a loss of national honour akin to India's colonial suppression.

Mrs Gandhi's astounding election victory had become symbolic of the durability and integrity of the Indian democracy both at home and abroad. However, the very hallmarks of that victory i.e. - espousing the cause of rural Indians who largely voted for Mrs Gandhi's Congress party and its allies, and the prospect of Mrs Gandhi becoming India's first prime minister of foreign origin led to socio-political and economic unease.

This eventually led to the unleashing of a torrential post-election drama, which kept the media and international community bemusedly hooked, and Indians at large anxiously vigilant. The events ranged from a man committing suicide over the prospects of having a foreign-born leader; to a famous politician's vow to tonsure her head and lead a life of personal penance if Mrs Gandhi took office; to the remarkable fall in India's stock markets. They seemed to outshine even the most melodramatic Bollywood magnum opus.

Constitutionally, an Indian citizen of foreign origin can vote, contest elections, and enjoy all democratic rights. And for masses who largely voted for Congress party and allies, 'foreignness' seems to hold little significance as opposed to hopes of economic redemption through the basic provisions of water, power, food, land and infrastructure, and an increased participation in India's economic success. Conversely however, most of the urban Indian population (including this writer) despite their respectful acquiescence to the dictates of democracy and recognition of personal sacrifices dutifully endured by Mrs Gandhi, seemed a little unsettled about the election mandate.

Inevitably, this sense of unease stemmed in part from Mrs Gandhi's native roots, but also from the mourning widow turned politician's apparent lack of astute leadership, diplomatic, decision making and visionary skills, and doubts about her capacity for ruling a country as socially divisive and politically capricious as India, and the evident inadequacy of her understanding of social, economic, nuclear or foreign affairs, and other intricate policy issues.

Moreover, in the minds of several young Indians the illustrious Gandhi family, which has ruled the country for most of its post-independence sixty years through the Congress party is often associated with India's acrimonious break-up with Pakistan, its former socialist outlook, the lofty non-aligned movement, staining of its relations with the United States and China, the impregnable Kashmir imbroglio, a tradition of rampant political corruption and dynastic domination of its polity.

Added to these are concerns for continued economic reforms, pragmatic geopolitical policy and broader strategic outlook, which gained India greater international credibility and improved its relations with the US, China and Israel under the tenure of its unceremoniously displaced and generally revered former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Despite the incongruities of heading a troublesome and religious-nationalist coalition Vajpayee was regarded as a moderate politician, visionary leader and a statesman who could lead an economically salient India to a peaceful co-existence with nuclear rival Pakistan.

Post-election social sentiments, political developments and economic concerns had a negative effect on India's stock markets. Foreign investors withdrew amidst fears of a reversal of economic reforms under the new Congress-led coalition government, fuelled by its left wing allies' overt dislike for privatisation of public sector enterprises.

The new governments' repeated promises to continue economic reforms, and the subsequent appointments of Dr Singh and Mr. P Chidambaram - two of India's most celebrated exponents of pro-reform policies as prime minister and finance minister respectively have resulted in significant market gains. However, the capacity of the new government to strike an effective balance between economic prudence and populism in formulating its union budget, and shaping its future economic strategy while appeasing its coalition partners and fulfilling election promises will greatly determine investors' confidence, global competence and domestic outlook of the Indian economy.

Despite a brief leadership void and delay in government formation, Mr Singh's assignment to lead India has met with a widespread social applause, raised economic morale and boosted political respect for Mrs Gandhi. The former comes to the post armed with impressive credentials as a professor, bureaucrat and as one of India's most acclaimed finance ministers being the architect of the 1991 economic reforms, which laid the ground for current economic buoyancy.

Mr Singh's status as India's first Sikh prime minister is also likely to secure secular brownie points for Congress from a previously hostile Sikh Community. Mrs Gandhi's mother in law Indira Gandhi, one of India's most dynamic prime ministers was assassinated by two Sikh bodyguards.

Mrs Gandhi may not be a political saint, and her decision to forgo India's top post might be the ultimate tactical move driven by the recognition of her limited capability in leading a country, an urge to prevent personal virulent attacks on herself, neutralise future political opposition from within and without the coalition sphere, silence political detractors and bolster the social credibility of the Congress party that she continues to lead.

It also remains to be seen if the stunning democratic win of Congress and its allies can transform itself into a stable central governance, and if the political haggling for lucrative portfolios, and policy concessions by coalition partners will eventually give way to a robust economic and political future. Whether India's new United Progressive Front can build on the economic, strategic and geopolitical strides of Mr Vajpayee's government and defuse its remnant deficiencies without reeling under the pressure of the opportunistic coalition politics will ultimately determine the efficacy of India's dynamic electoral mandate and its new leadership.

Nevertheless, for India, which has often seemed too preoccupied with its own colonial past, historical greatness and cultural diversity as a means of political aggrandisement, it is almost karmic salvation that a lesson on recognition of democratic spunk, the cost of ignoring poor masses and finally, on practising pragmatic political renunciation is delivered by a reluctant politician of 'foreign origin'.

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