Beware Italy's undeserved reputation as tournament 'slow-starters'
Second favourites Italy open their Euro 2004 campaign tonight with a great chance of victory over Denmark in Group C.
Italy have been renowned as slow starters in tournaments since drawing their three group matches in the 1982 World Cup on their way to their last major success, but that reputation is not exactly justified as they have won four out of seven opening matches in major championships since then (as a comparison, Denmark have won three out of eight in the same period).
A good start is likely to prove crucial in an evenly balanced group that also includes Sweden and Bulgaria, and Italy have every chance of taking early control. Denmark are fancied in many quarters but, as they showed in their 3-0 defeat against England in the 2002 World Cup, they are vulnerable against strong defensive teams. They rank as one of the worst qualifiers and are likely to be playing catch-up after tonight's match. For the best price on Italy, look at the handicap if they are giving a half-goal start to the Danes.
Sweden v Bulgaria, tonight's later game, could well identify an early candidate for surprise team of the tournament because even the runners-up from Group C has a reasonable chance of reaching the semi-finals. It is hard to separate this pair until seeing them in action. Sweden won the so-called 'Group of Death' in the 2002 World Cup and look more potent now with Henrik Larsson and Zlatan Ibrahimovic up front.
Bulgaria's pre-tournament form has not been great but they should not be written off. Dimitar Berbatov is one of Europe's best young strikers and, if he and Celtic's Stilian Petrov hit top form, they will be hard to stop.
Group D provides the second massive match-up of the tournament so far, with Germany taking on deadly rivals Holland in tomorrow's later game. Uncertainty surrounds both teams, with Germany suffering some bad defeats in their build-up, while Holland coach Dick Advocaat does not appear to know his best lineup.
Germany are being written off but such hasty judgments are always perilous, as they proved by reaching the 2002 World Cup final.
Holland are too hot and cold to be recommended for the win and, although a draw looks likely in this 'derby' match, Germany's odds are way too big given the fact that they are the seventh-ranked team on qualifying form.
The Czech Republic should assume pole position in Group D as they appear to face an easy task against tournament outsiders Latvia. The Czechs were outstanding in qualifying, taking four points off the Dutch, but it may be worth remembering that they disappointed in Euro 2000 after going into that tournament as the top-ranked team.
Nick's best bet: $200 Italy, win (HAD) or -0.5 (handicap).
