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A new partner in peace

China's increasingly vocal stance on international issues has raised hopes that it can use its growing influence to resolve some of the world's most protracted problems. In the minds of some, the Middle East would be a perfect testing ground for the mainland's mediatory muscle.

The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is the prime target for such efforts. Mediation on the so-called 'road map for peace' has ground to a halt because of mistrust and the distracted attention of the chief negotiator, the US, which is focused on Iraq and its November presidential election.

Some analysts argued this week that China would be a perfect partner for peace in the dispute because it had good relations with Israel and Arab nations and was not seen as overly biased.

Its appointment of special envoy to the Middle East Wang Shijie in September 2002 indicated an interest in taking an active role in the region. Last October, he visited Israel, the Palestinian territories, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Syria for what the Foreign Ministry said were 'in-depth talks with relevant parties in the Middle East peace process' and 'constructive efforts to ease ongoing tensions in the region'. He revisited Syria, Jordan and the Palestinian territories earlier this month.

Although Mr Wang has amplified his country's voice on Middle Eastern matters, no official offer of mediation has been made.

Israel would like that to change, believing the mainland can greatly improve the chances of a peace settlement with the Palestinians. The point was made in talks in Beijing last week between Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing and the director-general of Israel's Foreign Ministry, Yoav Biran.

Mr Biran confirmed during a visit to Hong Kong on Tuesday that China was not directly involved in any peace mission to the Middle East, but said it was ideally suited for such a role.

He said the mainland had a good standing with Israel and the Arab world and was an important part of the international community, particularly at the UN through its permanent membership of the Security Council.

'China can make a contribution to the political process in the Middle East provided it takes a responsible, balanced and constructive attitude,' Mr Biran said. 'A country like China, employing good dialogue with both parties, can be influential.'

He foresaw China's role as a facilitator, encouraging the Palestinians to engage in talks and implement their part of the road map. He said progress was impaired by Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat undermining efforts to find a political settlement.

China could also help at the UN by convincing Israel's neighbours to promote peace in the Middle East rather than engage in political warfare.

'China's basic attitude is positive,' Mr Biran said. 'It supports the basic right of Israel to live as an independent state, in peace with secure, recognised boundaries as stipulated by UN [Security Council] resolution 242,' of 1967.

Palestinian analyst Ali Jirbawi, agreed that China's involvement in the peace process would be beneficial, saying the road map was dead. He claimed Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had killed the process through military action against Palestinians.

'The Palestinians would welcome China if it was interested and wanted to play a role and got involved in facilitating peace negotiations,' said Dr Jirbawi, a professor of international relations at Birzeit University in the West Bank. 'Palestinians and Israelis would need to accept the mediation and what the third party is trying to achieve. But if the Chinese are on board only to pressure the Palestinians, that will not work. It would also not work if China was brought in to pressure the Israelis.'

Relations between Israel and the mainland have improved markedly in recent years. Ties were threatened three years ago after the US pressured Israel to scrap an arms deal.

But technology exchanges are now taking place and joint ventures are being contemplated. China is now Israel's biggest trading partner from Asia.

Such links, although not so extensive, have also been forged with Arab nations. Given China's thirst for energy to support economic growth, Saudi Arabia is arguably the most important.

Oil from the Middle East accounts for 80 per cent of China's consumption and the bulk is from Saudi Arabia. Diplomatic relations were established in 1990 and a strategic oil partnership was approved nine years later.

The chairman of Egypt's General Authority for Investment and Free Zones, Mohammed al-Ghamrawy, announced on Monday that investment by Chinese firms in his country had reached US$150 million. China's President Hu Jintao held talks with his Egyptian counterpart Hosni Mubarak during a state visit to Cairo in January.With the growing economic ties to the region has come an increasing interest in politics. Last month at the UN, the mainland's ambassador for the first time expressed concern at the US-led occupation of Iraq. In the months leading to the war, China initially joined France, Germany and Russia as a key objector to the US taking military action without UN approval.

But Beijing-based analyst Chen Shuanqing this week rejected suggestions that China wanted to become a peace-broker in the region. He described Mr Wang's job as 'symbolic'.

'Before his appointment, China had no voice in the Middle East,' said Dr Chen, who works with the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations. 'China is now trying to have some influence in issues such as mediation between Israel and the Palestinians, but it is still a regional rather than a global power like the US. Its focus is on its neighbours in south and east Asia rather than the Middle East.'

He said the US was the main player in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the mainland could therefore not have an important role in mediation.

The global security environment after the terrorist attacks in the US in 2001 had been the primary reason for China's increased interest in the region, Dr Chen said. The US had moved its strategic policy focus to the Middle East and because most of China's oil came from the region, it was prudent for it to increase that influence.

'An important point of China's foreign policy is to maintain good relations with the US. Because of its oil interests, though, it also has to pay more attention to Middle East issues,' he said.

But that view was not wholly shared by Shanghai-born, US-based academic Li Cheng. The professor of Chinese politics at Hamilton College in New York put concern in Beijing over US support for Taiwan ahead of oil as the reason for the mainland's deeper interest in the Middle East.

The aim was part of a strategy to ensure the US did not support Taiwanese independence, he said.

'They're using influence in the Middle East as bargaining power regarding Taiwan,' Dr Li said. 'China is unhappy with recent events in Taiwan, particularly mixed messages from the US.'

Increasing US military activity was also causing concern, especially along shipping routes for Middle East oil in the Malacca Strait near Singapore and in the South and East China seas.

China did not want to take a confrontational policy towards the US and sought to be co-operative on Iraq, the Middle East and to a certain extent, North Korea.

Dr Li agreed with Dr Chen that China may increase its involvement in the Middle East peace process, but only to a limited degree. Any such decision would be based on proving to an increasingly nationalistic public that China was relevant on the international stage.

The situation would be different a decade from now, he said.

'China's need for oil will be increasingly important,' Dr Li said. 'By then, China will be more ready to take a lead. At the moment, though, oil is not the most important issue - it's still Taiwan.'

But observers cautioned such an assessment could well be determined by continuing insecurity in Iraq and the next stage of America's war on terror. It was also uncertain whether President George W. Bush's challenger, John Kerry, would follow the same foreign policy path on the Middle East.

What was certain, though, was that China's booming economic growth would translate into future foreign policy muscle.

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