'Cross-strait war possible in eight years'
Taiwan's former deputy defence minister says that by then, the PLA will be powerful enough to deter US intervention
Taiwan could be just eight years away from war with the mainland, a former Taiwanese deputy defence minister says.
Lin Chong-pin, a faculty member of the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Taiwan's Tamkang University, said that by 2012 the PLA would be strong enough to seize the island and deter the United States from intervening in a cross-strait conflict.
Professor Lin's assessment was less gloomy than that of some analysts, who say the mainland could strike in 2006 - when Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian plans to call a referendum to revise the island's constitution.
Beijing has repeatedly said it would see such a move by Taiwan as a march towards independence.
'I'm not worried about 2006. It is 2012 when Beijing may make a move,' Professor Lin said.
The central government has said it remains committed to peaceful reunification with Taiwan, but would not rule out war if the island declared independence.
Professor Lin said that in eight years the People's Liberation Army would not only have strengthened special operations forces but raised its arsenal of global positioning satellites, cruise missiles and unmanned aircraft. He said it would also have planted enough infiltrators in Taiwan.
He said Beijing's strategy was not to annihilate the island, but to paralyse it.
'The plan is to seize Taiwan with minimum bloodshed and physical damage,' Professor Lin said.
If Mr Chen pushed ahead with the referendum plan in 2006, Professor Lin predicted the PLA might launch a series of short-range tactical missile strikes over Taiwan to scare the island before the vote.
'You can imagine the potential effect this would have on the Taiwanese stock market and society,' he said.
'Beijing could then tell the US: 'Well, I told you to reign in Taipei, but you didn't do anything and so we have to do it ourselves',' Professor Lin said.
To boost the shock value, the PLA would announce the strikes in advance and say where the missiles would hit, he said.
Despite Beijing's recent criticism of Washington's China policies, Professor Lin believed the mainland would work with the United States.
'The linchpin for Beijing is co-operation before struggle with the US. No matter how harsh the criticism gets, the exchanges between the two sides will be stable,' Professor Lin said.
On Tuesday, Sun Weide , a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, blasted US officials for their position towards Taiwan.
His remarks followed a visit to Beijing by US National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice last week, during which she rejected Chinese leaders' demands that Washington not supply Taiwan with advanced weaponry.
