Political landscape that's all too predictable
The overall balance of power is likely to stay unchanged, with only Albert Cheng managing to raise the tempo
Except for the unexpected candidacy of Albert Cheng King-hon, there are no major surprises in the lineup for next month's Legislative Council elections after nominations closed yesterday.
Some prominent names, such as David Chu Yu-lin of the Hong Kong Progressive Alliance, who had half a chance of a seat, have dropped out of the geographical polls.
This will considerably boost the chances of like-minded pro-government candidates such as James Tien Pei-chun of the Liberal Party, making some geographical elections less unpredictable.
This should not have been the case. With six more geographical seats up for grabs after the abolition of the Election Committee constituency seats, the battle for geographical constituencies should have become a free-for-all.
In reality, most of the 30 geographical seats look anything but uncertain.
Under the proportional representational system, candidates on top of the major tickets are virtually assured of winning. Only the last or second last seats in each constituency are up for grabs.
That said, the outcome in marginal seats could tip the balance between the pan-democracy opposition and the pro-government alliance in the new Legco.
Barring no major surprises, the six extra geographical seats are likely to be halved by the pro-government camp - Mr Tien and Selina Chow Liang Shuk-yee of the Liberal Party and independent Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai - and the opposition (barristers Alan Leong Kah-kit, Ronny Tong Ka-wah and Cheng).
Both the Democratic Party and the pro-government Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong are unlikely to secure extra seats.
The likely scenario shows the constraints and limitations of the two major parties under the present political landscape.
It also reflects the harsh reality that fresh aspirants without political cachet and strong party backing have no chance in 'one person, one vote' polls.
Despite its close ties with Beijing, the demise of the Progressive Alliance speaks volumes about the election game.
Without political stars, district links and a power base in functional sectors, it is doomed to become a 'bubble party'.
Compared with geographical polls, functional constituency elections seem to exist in a different world, with both highly competitive and uncontested polls.
The high number of seats uncontested is a manifestation of flaws in the system.
Cheng may be an accidental candidate who can help secure for the pro-democracy camp a seat they would have otherwise had a 50-50 chance of winning, but the overall balance of power will stay unchanged.
But his presence looks set to at least raise the tempo of the election and galvanise emotions.
