As part of the continuing charm offensive, the mainland's Olympic heroes will arrive in Hong Kong tomorrow. This can only benefit pro-Beijing candidates, who campaign on the theme of stability, highlighting the fact they have the ear of Beijing.

Zhang Tongxin, director of the Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau Research Centre at People's University, predicts that warmer relations between pro-democracy parties and the central government since June augur well for a smooth election.

He said the expansion of directly elected seats in Legco from 24 to 30 meant Hong Kong people were enjoying more democracy than ever. 'People can see that gradualism with an evenly paced march to democracy is working,' he said.

Nonetheless, the Hong Kong watcher admitted that voter sentiment on election day is difficult to predict. The democracy camp's landslide victory in the district council elections last November taught Beijing that Hong Kong people may not show their gratitude by voting for the central government's proxies.

Two events have had a negative effect on support for the Democratic Party. One of its candidates, Alex Ho Wai-to was detained in Dongguan for consorting with a prostitute, while another, James To Kun-sun, was accused of failing to disclose assets and misusing public funds.

Last week's revelation of the use of office space funded by three Federation of Trade Unions legislators, among them Chan Yuen-han, for union classes has equally been negative for the image of pro-Beijing candidates.

The unpredictability of the poll results has prompted some analysts in Beijing to think that Hong Kong voters are not looking at those who could best serve their economic interest in elections.

The fear of foreign meddling has also coloured Beijing's view of Hong Kong.

An analyst at a government think-tank said political developments in Hong Kong over the past six years were profoundly troubling, as manifested by the increase in protests compared with the time of British rule. With each demonstration, slogans grew more provocative and organisers showed increasing skill and discipline.

Discontent over the depressed economy was not the only reason half a million people took part in the march against the Article 23 anti-subversion legislation on July 1 last year. Two other mass rallies on January 1 and July 1 this year also attracted large crowds.

Developments in Hong Kong since the July 1 march last year had led to a review of Beijing's policies on Hong Kong, the analyst said. The result was the emergence of a hardline policy that Hong Kong must not be turned into an 'experimental field for democracy'.

Analysts noted that when the central government perceived its authority being challenged, the response was typically hardline, as summed up in the saying: 'When in doubt, turn left.'

Moreover, after democrats swept the district council elections, a sense of crisis had been heightened by the politicking surrounding the presidential election in Taiwan, where the holding of a referendum prompted sustained sabre-rattling from Beijing, which saw it as another step towards independence.

The perception that democratisation in Hong Kong was instigated by foreign countries and 'pseudo democrats' selling out the city has led to the central government's insistence that only 'patriots' can lead Hong Kong.

In April, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress issued an interpretation of the Basic Law and ruled out direct election of the chief executive in 2007 and for the Legislative Council in 2008.

In the run-up to the Legco election, the mainland has alternately used hard and soft approaches, the analysts said, and it wold continue to set the agenda for Hong Kong's political development after the election.

Zhu Yucheng, the former Hong Kong-based mainland official recalled from retirement to head top-level think-tank the Institute of Hong Kong and Macau Affairs, warned a seminar in Hong Kong in May that the high cost of experimenting with democracy would be detrimental to stability and prosperity. It must be understood that 'a high degree of autonomy' was not independence, he said.

To signal that Beijing would not brook any foreign interference, a Chinese navy flotilla sailed through Hong Kong harbour in May and the People's Liberation Army paraded in Hong Kong in August for the 77th anniversary of its founding.

In the past, the mainland has treated support for Hong Kong's economy and for 'patriots' ruling Hong Kong as two sides of the same coin. But in the new thinking, mainland intervention to prop up Hong Kong economically has limitations.

'You cannot keep on giving candy to a crying child,' one analyst remarked.

Hong Kong was in the midst of economic transition and the central government must come up with ideas to ease the gridlock of reforms and address the structural problems, he said.

The mainland experts admitted that unpopular Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa and the functional constituencies were easily criticised. With the new Legco, and three more years to go before the election of the next chief executive, Beijing should lose no time finding a suitable candidate to succeed Mr Tung.

One said that after seven years of a 'hands-off' approach to 'one country, two systems', Beijing had belatedly realised that Hong Kong people had only a 'dim understanding' of the principle and had laid themselves open to 'heresies' of local legalists and democracy activists to resist the central government.

'Under the Basic Law, the National People's Congress has the right to interpret the law, but lawyers and judges have repeatedly used judiciary issues to challenge the central government,' he said.

Three pro-democracy radio hosts have quit after complaining of intimidation. Although no clear evidence of government involvement emerged, the incidents created an uneasy atmosphere in the free-wheeling Hong Kong media.

In the meantime, Beijing has stepped up propaganda on how 'one country, two systems' should be interpreted and to foster closer identification with the motherland among Hongkongers. The exhibition of mementoes of Deng Xiaoping on the centenary of the late patriarch's birth and the visit this week by Olympic athletes are designed to inspire patriotism.

Professor Zhang of People's University pointed out the debate on direct elections had obscured the fact Beijing was not opposed to universal suffrage.

'People forget that it is stipulated in the Basic Law,' he said. The consultative process to build trust was a good beginning to produce mutually acceptable proposals, he said.

He warned that pro-democracy legislators risked squandering the goodwill of the central government and their constituents if they tried to act like the elected representatives in Taiwan.