PLA assured of stability under Hu, say analysts
Military will become more professional with the party taking control again
President Hu Jintao has widespread support within the rank and file of the PLA as he takes over the helm of the world's largest military from Jiang Zemin , according to analysts.
They said his leadership of the Central Military Commission would allow the PLA to gain much-needed political stability as it now had a clear chain of civilian command and control.
'I think Hu Jintao has the backing of not only the elder generals but those who are on the ascendancy,' said Lin Chong-pin, a PLA expert and former Taiwanese vice-minister of defence.
According to analysts, Mr Hu has quietly and carefully earned the respect of the military establishment since his appointment as vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission in 1999.
James Mulvenon, a PLA expert at the US-based Rand Corporation, said Mr Hu had proved his acumen to the PLA top brass through his skilful handling of the 1998 commercial divesture of the PLA and his statements during last year's Ming 361 submarine accident, which claimed 70 lives.
'Hu was successful in getting the PLA to disinvest without causing political embarrassment to the military. During the Ming accident, Hu pledged to the military the need to strengthen training and modernisation while Jiang extolled martyrdom,' Mr Mulvenon said.
'Such actions have given the military confidence in Hu's leadership.'
With Mr Hu heading the party and military, analysts believe the PLA will become more stable and professional with the party once again in control. Under Mr Jiang's leadership, there was widespread concern that the centre of power was split between Beijing's political and military leadership.
'With Jiang still controlling the Central Military Commission, there was the potential danger that the PLA could not function in a crisis situation. But with Hu now the top guy, I think such a situation has been avoided,' Mr Mulvenon said.
Despite his wide-ranging support within the PLA, analysts believe Mr Hu will not make substantial changes in the direction of the military's development.
'The PLA has programmed itself with the general trend already decided. It is unlikely there will be any drastic changes under Hu,' said Professor Lin, who believes the military will continue full speed ahead in developing an arsenal to launch a war of paralysis against Taiwan.
However, analysts disagreed on the possible impact on Mr Hu of the newly enlarged Central Military Commission, which increased its members by four to 11.
Professor Lin believed a bigger commission would force Mr Hu to run the military by consensus, as he must in the nine-member Politburo Standing Committee.
Mr Mulvenon believes the commission lead Mr Hu to make more 'balanced' decisions.
