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Pressure on Taiwan seems to be paying off

As new chief of the PLA, Hu Jintao is unlikely to ease up on Chen Shui-bian in the face of 'insincere and vague' overtures

It should come as little surprise that Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's offer to restart peace talks with the mainland has been greeted largely with scepticism and scorn at home and elsewhere.

In Hong Kong and Taiwan, mainstream media and commentators mostly suspect Mr Chen is merely paying lip service to talks.

The mainland has not officially responded, but judging from the initial comments from mainland experts and official media, the offer is likely to be dismissed because of its 'insincere and vague' nature.

From the mainland's official point of view, Mr Chen has lost his credibility because he is seen as a man who says one thing in public but does something else. Beijing will find it difficult to accept that Mr Chen meant what he said this time.

Mainland officials and analysts believe Mr Chen's latest overture is part of his efforts to drum up support for his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in December's election for the Legislative Yuan.

'Mr Chen's top priority is to ensure the DPP will continue to be the ruling party in the years to come,' one analyst said.

However, there are signs that Mr Chen's latest offer for talks is not merely the 'word play' that official mainland media called it yesterday.

Since taking office for a second term in May, Mr Chen appears to be under increasing international pressure to back down from his provocative stance against the mainland.

Beijing's strategy of seeking international support to pressure Taiwan appears to be working. A number of countries, including Singapore, have publicly blamed Taiwan for inciting the current tension across the Taiwan Strait and endangering regional stability.

Mainland analysts believe Beijing has also succeeded in convincing the United States, the island's biggest backer, of its political and military determination to attack Taiwan if it declares independence.

'We believe Washington has got the message on Taiwan loud and clear,' one mainland analyst said.

The analyst said Washington was applying pressure on Mr Chen to soften his tone towards the mainland.

Mainland analysts said the Taiwan issue would top the agenda at a summit meeting between President Hu Jintao and US President George W. Bush, scheduled for the sidelines of an Apec meeting in Chile next month.

'President Hu will probably use the meeting to convince Mr Bush to put more pressure on Mr Chen,' one analyst said.

When Mr Hu replaced Jiang Zemin as chairman of the Central Military Commission last month, there were suggestions he might be less of a hardliner on Taiwan than Mr Jiang.

But mainland analysts said Mr Hu was very unlikely to soften Beijing's tough stance against Taiwan, particularly as hawkish PLA generals are clamouring for military action against the island.

The consensus of the leadership in Beijing is that Taiwan and the mainland can begin genuine talks only after the PLA proves the seriousness and credibility of its threat against Taiwan, mainland analysts said.

'With Mr Hu just taking over as commander in chief of the PLA, the last thing he wants is to be seen as weak on Taiwan,' one mainland analyst said.

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