Sacking reveals a junta in turmoil
Khin Nyunt's removal is seen as a turning point but will it strengthen or ruin the regime?
The sacking of Myanmar's prime minister, General Khin Nyunt, is being seen by experts trying to penetrate the ruling junta's secretive workings as the biggest turning point in 12 years. Whether it strengthens the hand of the country's repressive generals or leads to their downfall is now a matter for debate.
Khin Nyunt's replacement on Tuesday with Lieutenant-General Soe Win, an ally of Myanmar's leader, Senior General Than Shwe, was initially viewed as a tightening of Than Shwe's grip on power. But some analysts claimed yesterday that the junta was on a course for self-destruction.
There was agreement, though, that Myanmar's increased isolation from the rest of the world as a result of the removal of its highest-profile spokesman could only lead to greater internal pressures.
Myanmese-born analyst Maureen Aung-Thwin, the director of the Open Society Institute's Burma Project, said from New York that a major cabinet shake-up last month and Khin Nyunt's removal had revealed the military leadership was in disarray.
'They're imploding because they're fighting over the few scraps,' said Ms Aung-Thwin, who is banned from her homeland. 'Their backs are against the wall because they're not getting as rich as they once could as a result of the western sanctions.'
The official reason for Khin Nyunt's removal was his health, but Thai officials said he had been arrested for corruption.
US expert David Steinberg, who visits Myanmar frequently and was last there in August, agreed that problems lay ahead for the fractious military after the sacking of Khin Nyunt and the removal of dozens of his supporters, including foreign minister Win Aung last month. Such had been the case in 1982 when intelligence chief Tin Oo and his backers were removed by then junta leader Ne Win.
'Loyalties are highly personal, not institutional, in the military,' said Dr Steinberg, a professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University. 'We can expect a purge of people close to Khin Nyunt, in the Home Ministry and military intelligence. This will isolate the regime further and that's not good - as it becomes more isolated, it becomes more unrealistic on how to deal with the world.'
Former Australian ambassador to Myanmar Trevor Wilson and Thai political scientist Sunai Phasuk saw the events as Than Shwe strengthening his control. They termed events of recent weeks the most significant in the country since Than Shwe replaced Saw Maung as leader in 1992.
'There have always been divisions between Khin Nyunt's group and the operational side of the military, which has now taken complete control,' said Mr Wilson, who teaches at the Australian National University in Canberra. 'There are fewer factions now than there were before and the divisions are less.'
Dr Sunai, a member of the Thai Senate's foreign affairs advisory committee and an associate professor at Thammasart University, said the hopes for democratic changes Khin Nyunt had been espousing now seemed remote.
'I would hope to see a transition in Myanmar, but at the moment there are many matters of concern,' he said. Soe Win, who had been involved in attacks leading to the house arrest of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi last year, represented a bleak future, he said.
