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India drives east for influence

India is getting ready for a political romp in a region that China has passionately courted and pampered for a long time. Come November 22, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will wave the starter's flag sending off the first Indian-led car rally across most of the countries of Asean.

Leaving from Guwahati, in northeastern India, the parade will wind through Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia and Indonesia, to reach Singapore on December 11. The only member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations it will miss are Brunei and the Philippines.

Although the 20-day affair will cost the Indian government US$8 million, nobody in New Delhi is complaining, for the rally is a calculated diplomatic exercise in regional rival China's backyard.

'It is a case of realpolitik,' said Indian defence analyst Ashok Mehta. 'China has made deep inroads into the entire Asean region, militarily and economically. India has lost a lot of time not recognising [this] reality.'

Today, China calls the shots across the region. It has a finger in virtually every pie, a foot in every door and friends in every nook and cranny - an all-pervasive presence that has taken years to spread.

New Delhi is belatedly trying to drive its way to closer ties with Asean nations which Beijing - rightly or wrongly - considers within its zone of influence. One commentator aptly described the whole exercise as 'networking on wheels'.

Analysts in India say Dr Singh's government is determined to make its presence felt in a region dangerously close to its border, where China's shadow is lengthening every day. The rally, in which 30-odd teams will take part, is being jointly organised by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs and the Confederation of Indian Industry.

The objective of the 8,000km drive is to boost Indian-Asean relations, highlight their geographical proximity and road connections, and boost trade, tourism and people-to-people contacts, said C.M. Bhandari, additional secretary in the External Affairs Ministry.

'People in the Asean region somehow always think India is very far [away]. The rally will show that we are close and can travel overland to see each other,' said senior diplomat Rajiv Kumar.

The idea for such a rally was first mooted by former prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee at an Indian-Asean summit in Bali in October last year. He also signed a framework trade agreement with Asean, last year, which will eventually lead to a free-trade area in goods, services and investment.

Some foreign-policy experts believe the fear of losing Southeast Asian markets to China lies at the heart of India's new push. When India started dismantling Soviet-style controls on trade and investment in 1991, China already had a 13-year head start.

The bigger blow came in 2001, when China and Asean announced plans to create a zero-duty market of 1.7 billion people within a decade. Just before the rally kicks off this month, Dr Singh will address a business summit attended by ministers from Asean countries. The rally is clearly a reflection of India's 'look east' foreign policy, designed to offset China's influence in the region with strategic, trade and investment initiatives.

Addressing Asean representatives in New Delhi last month, Dr Singh said: 'As we look east and you look west, it is natural that we look at each other in this enterprise of ushering in an Asian century.'

India and Asean have set a target of raising trade to US$15 billion by next year, and US$30 billion by 2007. Two-way trade rose to US$13 billion last year from US$3.5 billion in 1991.

'Defying public opinion in India, New Delhi is ready to engage even the Myanmar junta as a conduit to greater trade with Southeast Asian nations,' says C. Uday Bhaskar, head of New Delhi's Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis. 'It would be strategically imprudent not to engage Myanmar.'

The red carpet welcome for Myanmar's supreme ruler, General Than Shwe, when he flew to India last month exposed New Delhi's desperation to befriend him at any cost.

India shares a 1,400km border with Myanmar. It regards the country as a gateway to Asean, and badly needs the junta's help for counter-insurgency and anti-drugs operations in the lawless northeast.

There are reports that India has signed an agreement to sell military hardware at throwaway prices to Than Shwe to wean him away from China.

'Our engagement with Myanmar is firstly because of our own security requirements, the look east policy, and not leaving them to completely depend on one power,' said Shashank, who recently retired as Indian foreign secretary. He uses one name.

A significant admission came when communist members of Parliament asked J.N. Dixit, India's national security adviser, whether he and Than Shwe discussed the detention of Myanmese democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Mr Dixit bluntly told them India could not afford to antagonise the general.

Lowering his voice, Mr Dixit told Marxist MPs that 'India has to tread very carefully as a Chinese oil major has just signed an oil exploration contract [with Myanmar]'. He also reminded them about a China-Myanmar agreement, spanning 20 sectors, which was signed in March during Vice-Premier Wu Yi's visit to Yangon.

'The new Indian government is very worried about China's dominance and wants to counter it,' said Sean Turnell of Macquarie University in Sydney. 'India is playing a growing role mainly because they have been spooked by China.' But will New Delhi's 'look east' policy spoil India's relations with China?

State Councillor Tang Jiaxuan visited New Delhi last month at India's invitation. After three days of talks, the two sides issued a joint communique announcing that bilateral relations had entered a 'new phase'.

Mr Tang's visit apparently paved the way for a visit by Premier Wen Jiabao to India early next year, although dates have not been announced.

'But all this does not mean that the rivalry between India and China, or the competition for influence in Asia, is over - quite the contrary,' says Lionel Martin, an independent international affairs analyst.

'India's new agreements with Myanmar, its naval buildup and its 'look east' policy in Southeast Asia are all influenced by the desire to limit China's growing influence. India views China's naval growth and its exploding economic influence in Southeast Asia and Central Asia as potential challenges to Indian interests,' he said.

'Likewise, India maintains that China's support for Pakistan prevents India from achieving its rightful place in Asia. Nevertheless, the present rapprochement means that parallel with this rivalry in Southeast Asia, shared interests are taking root as well.'

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