Lucky heading in the right direction
Never mind the lateness of the hour - it should be worth sticking around until the final event this evening where Tony Cruz-trained Lucky Good Day is expected to take all the beating following a massive turnaround in recent trackwork.
The Argentinean import has turned the corner since his last run on October 17, where he finished a dismal last behind stablemate Russian Pearl.
Interestingly, immediately after that race, it was noted he returned with a 'significant amount of mucus' upon scoping by the club's veterinary surgeon. In other words, forget the run. He has simply thrived in a series of gallops since that outing. He won a 1,000 metres turf trial on November 2 in good style.
On the form side, both runs this season have come at Sha Tin - not his preferred track by any means. However, last season, following some sound work, he won at Happy Valley over 1,800m at very good odds ($450). His overnight quote ($69) indicates stable confidence, and there is plenty to suggest that the return to the Valley will bring about marked improvement.
It looks a good, competitive betting race. Healthy Wealthy, Red Power, Fortune Smiles and Cosmo Success all have solid claims. The main danger, and quinella pick, is Fortune Smiles, who is likely to join Lucky Good Day in a front-running role and there is every possibility the pair may be able to run one-two for the entire journey.
It is hard to knock the form of Healthy Wealthy, who takes a drop in grade following a battling second to Dynamic Fun this month, over the course and distance. He has only missed the frame once from four starts over 1,800m at Happy Valley, and has strong claims to keep the statistics looking favourable.
Red Power has been a model of consistency on his past four starts, two of which have come this season. There is no doubt he will relish the step up in trip. And it would be virtually impossible to leave out Cosmo Success of any multiples. He is competitively weighted and, providing he gets the breaks, is capable of notching his seventh win at the city circuit.