Surprise result will bolster Beijing's position
Tensions across the Taiwan Strait look set to ease with the pan-blue camp winning a surprise victory in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan election on Saturday.
The news has brought much relief to officials in Beijing, who expected the worst, believing Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive Party would gain a majority in the legislature for the first time.
To Beijing, the slim victory of the alliance between the opposition Kuomintang and People First Party signals that most Taiwanese voters do not want to change the status quo and reject Mr Chen's calls for greater independence.
Mainland analysts say Saturday's election result is a significant setback for the Taiwanese independence movement. Mr Chen now has less room to push ahead with his pro-independence agenda, while the window of opportunity for talks between Beijing and Taipei is growing larger.
The president's setback will further validate Beijing's strategy of watching quietly while preparing for a military assault if Taiwan is adjudged to have 'crossed the line'.
It will also strengthen Beijing's efforts to build an international united front against independence for Taiwan. So far, the strategy has worked in Beijing's favour - the United States, the European Union, Russia and Association of Southeast Asian Nations members have all expressed strong opposition to independence for Taiwan, and any attempt to change the status quo.
Washington's recent rebuttals of Mr Chen's campaign pledges to change the name of the Republic of China to Taiwan and hold referendums for a new constitution - moves which Beijing has said could lead to war - have swayed public opinion on the island.
Beijing is expected to work with Washington more closely against Taiwanese independence and will be more willing to compromise on other international issues in return for US support.
Next, Beijing is expected to use its influence on Japan, another main backer of Taiwan, to declare its opposition to independence for the island.
'Chen Shui-bian is fast losing international support, and the Taiwanese people have sent a clear message that they are weary of angering Beijing,' one mainland analyst said.
The leadership in Beijing has two options in dealing with Mr Chen: to persuade him to accept the one-China principle and resume talks, or to wait in the hope that the ruling DPP will lose the 2008 presidential election.
Mainland sources noted that while Mr Chen was keen to talk with Beijing, and had delivered such messages through several intermediaries, the mainland remained cold-hearted.
Beijing has long labelled Mr Chen as a pro-independent advocate and has refused to hold any dialogue with him unless he and his administration recognise the one-China principle.
But as it is building its united front against Taiwanese independence, Beijing could reconsider its position on whether it should engage Mr Chen and the DPP.
For many officials in Beijing, Taiwan's former president, Lee Teng-hui, is the main driving force behind the pro-independence movement.
'History has proved that [Mr Lee] is the troublemaker who has instigated the tensions across the strait. But Chen is different. He is a slick politician and will say or do anything to get himself or his party elected,' one mainland academic said.
The academic said Beijing should make a distinction between the two, and target Mr Lee and the Taiwan Solidarity Union, which comprises die-hard independence activists.
