Manpower Hong Kong came up with a net employment outlook by subtracting the number of firms planning to cut staff from those who were going to increase hiring.

The figure for Hong Kong, 26 per cent, was 1 percentage point above the result for the third quarter this year, and 31 percentage points above the result from the third quarter last year, in the immediate aftermath of the Sars outbreak, when a net total of 5 per cent of firms planned staff cuts.

That quarter was the first time the survey had been carried out in Hong Kong.

While acknowledging the effect of Sars, Manpower Hong Kong director Deborah Morgan said the city was the only place in the world where the survey had recorded a consistent quarter-on-quarter increase. 'If we didn't see that consistent climb, we'd be in a bit of a panic,' Ms Morgan said. 'But I believe that it will continue into 2005. Whether the growth will be as strong is uncertain. There will still be increases.'

Only New Zealand, with a net employment outlook of 30 per cent, was looking at stronger growth, Ms Morgan said. She pinpointed the wholesale and retail, and the transport and utilities sectors as the prime movers of Hong Kong jobs growth.

This was a good sign for those at the bottom of the employment ladder. 'The low-level jobs are looking very good,' she said. 'Basically, anything that is linked into the growth in mainland tourists will see strong growth.'

The findings of the survey are in line with projections from other sources which see the economy and the employment situation improving slightly during the first half of next year.

'It is a bit difficult to judge anything that happened in 2004 because of the results of 2003 [due to Sars]. But I believe the growth will continue,' Ms Morgan said.

Owing to a lack of historical data, the figures produced by the survey are raw indicators of short-term hiring intentions, with the results affected by seasonal variations in the level of employment.