German leader's welfare gamble pays off
Pilloried in the streets and pummelled in opinion polls, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has not had an easy year. Yet only months after having his political obituary written, the steward of the world's third-largest economy is staging a remarkable comeback.
This summer, massive demonstrations against Mr Schroeder's economic reform programme shook his centre-left coalition government. Tens of thousands of Germans took to the streets each Monday for months to protest against planned cuts to the country's once comfortable welfare state.
Mr Schroeder's popularity sank to new lows after loyal supporters publicly accused him of betraying the roots of his Social Democratic Party (SPD). As the federal government in Berlin floundered, the SPD was hammered in a string of state and local elections by the conservative opposition.
Realising he had tied his fate to the harsh reform measures, Mr Schroeder stood firm. He argued that the moves were the only way for Germany to overcome slow growth and high unemployment. If the country turned back from painful yet needed changes, it would be without him at the helm.
Surprisingly, the strategy worked. 'It was a rather rough year for the government, but it appears as if Schroeder has turned things around,' said Bernhard Wessels, a political analyst at the Social Science Research Centre in Berlin.
A number of missteps by the conservative Christian Democrats helped. And by reluctantly giving up his position as chair of the SPD, Mr Schroeder was able to focus on governing instead of trying to placate the party's left-wingers.
He has also benefited from not buckling under the pressure of the mass demonstrations, which has led to a grudging acceptance for his reform course.
Visibly more at ease on the job these days, Mr Schroeder now freely admits the government did a lousy job of getting its message out to the public earlier this year. He also believes the protesters unwittingly aided him.
'The paradox was that it was the demonstrators that helped the majority of people better understand the reforms - they achieved exactly the opposite of what they wanted,' Mr Schroeder said in a recent interview with Die Welt newspaper. 'That's why the SPD and I are doing better in the polls now.'
The Social Democrats have closed the gap with the conservatives in recent months, although the opposition still holds a 15-point lead in most surveys.
But there are pitfalls to the left as well as the right. Several disgruntled trade unionists and other hardline leftists have set up a new protest party with the aim of challenging the Social Democrats in state and national elections.
And it is unclear whether Mr Schroeder can bank on his relative popularity to win a third term in 2006. His reform agenda has seriously dented his likeability with many Germans.
'I basically support Schroeder, but I'm a little worried that he is neglecting social welfare. Too many people are getting left behind,' said Stephanie Lehmann, a 24-year-old part-time waitress in Berlin.
Unfortunately, that widely held sentiment does not fit with the assessment of many economists, who contend the government will have to enact much more drastic structural reforms to get Germany back on track.
Mr Schroeder may not have to wait until the next general election to find out his political fate. Most observers consider a state election in the SPD heartland of North Rhine-Westphalia in May to be the chancellor's date with destiny.
'If the SPD can't win there,' Dr Wessels said, 'then they don't stand a chance nationally'.
